Overnight Range 1.3089-1.3129
Today’s US data releases missed the forecasts. Q4 GDP was 1.9% rather than the 2.2%, y/y consensus guess. Core US Durable goods data was unchanged at 0.5%) which helped take the sting out of the GDP disappointment. There was a flurry of activity but more akin to a snow squall rather than a blizzard and it was over in minutes.
US dollar inched higher against most of the G10 currencies in a quiet overnight session.
Chinese New Year began today and trading in Asia was extra quiet.
USDJPY rose from 114.40 to 115.30 with traders looking ahead to this morning’s GDP data for confirmation that the US economy is humming along tickety-boo.
Australia posted a 12.4% jump in its Export Price Index but it only had a minor impact on trading AUDUSD opened in New York slightly down from yesterday’s close while Kiwi was unchanged.
European stock indices are slightly lower heading into the weekend and EURUSD traded in a narrow 1.0659-97 range
Sterling retreated further from yesterday’s 1.2637 peak due to profit taking ahead of the weekend. UK Theresa May appeared to be auditioning for a role on “The Bachelor” with her somewhat fawning speech to the Republican party yesterday afternoon. She said “”Because of this, because of what you have done together, because of that great victory you have won, America can be stronger, greater, and more confident in the years ahead. And a newly emboldened, confident America is good for the world’.
Oil prices climbed to $54.05 and then dropped to the session’s low of $53.27, just before the New York open.
USDCAD tracked the US dollar higher with the drop in WTI prices providing a little additional support to the upside move.
The US is ending the week on a mixed note. The Canadian dollar is the best performing G10 currency since last Friday’s close rising 1.28% while the Japanese yen is the worst performer. It is down 1.35%. Sterling and Kiwi are the other two gainers.
President Trump’s threat of a 20% tax on imported goods from Mexico to pay for “the Wall” has allowed a whiff of risk aversion to creep into FX trading overnight.
Sterling could have a good day if UK PM May’s meeting with Trump produces favorable tweets suggesting a fast-tracked UK/US Trade agreement.
Overnight Ranges
|
Open |
|||
|
27-Jan-17 |
High |
Low |
|
|
USDCAD |
1.3114 |
1.3129 |
1.3089 |
|
EURUSD |
1.0681 |
1.0697 |
1.0659 |
|
USDJPY |
115.09 |
115.30 |
114.40 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.2524 |
1.2603 |
1.2522 |
|
USDCHF |
1.0009 |
1.0026 |
0.9992 |
|
AUDUSD |
0.7530 |
0.7540 |
0.7513 |
|
NZDUSD |
0.7246 |
0.7263 |
0.7233 |
|
WTI |
53.35 |
54.05 |
53.26 |
| Close 4:00 pm EDT-Open 6:00 am EDT |
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3180 supported by the series of lower highs since Jan 20 suggesting further downside is possible. A break below 1.3050 would extend losses to 1.3010 and then 1.2910. A move above 1.3140 today would lead back to 1.3180. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3050 and 1.3010. Resistance is at 1.3140 and 1.3180.
Today’s Range 1.3060-1.3160
Chart: USDCAD hourly with lower highs flag
