By Michael O’Neill

Canadians voted for change but not the change that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was hoping for. Instead of opting for a career politician with negligible private sector work experience, they picked Mark Carney, a man with zero elected experience but who boasted a formidable résumé—former Bank of Canada and former Bank of England Governor.

He has his work cut out for him. Canada’s closest neighbour and largest trading partner is demanding a divorce. US President Donald Trump is overtly hostile toward Canada. His TruthSocial account is rife with tweets about how America doesn’t need anything from Canada, including cars, lumber, or oil.

On election day, Trump tried to put himself on the ballot with this demented prose:

 “Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with NO BORDER. ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO BE! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!”

Carney may be glad for Trump’s assist in getting him elected, but when it comes to renegotiating what Trump once described as the “largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved” (USMCA), Trump may find a pair of sharp elbows in his teeth.

For starters, Carney is no stranger to negotiations, as his career at Goldman Sachs and as Vice Chairman of the $1.0 trillion Brookfield Asset Management can attest. He is intimately familiar with the intricacies of global financial markets and holds a PhD in Economics (also known as the Doctor of Philosophy) from Oxford. It is fair to say that Mr. Carney has forgotten more about economics and global financial negotiations than six-time bankrupt Trump.

Carney has another advantage over Trump. The elderly 78-year-old President is often completely detached from reality or else suffers from short-term memory loss.

Back in 2017, he declared, “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. I’ve always been great with money; I’ve always been great with jobs—that’s what I do.” Fast forward to April 30, 2025, when he ranted on TruthSocial, “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th.”

The White House released the First 100 Days Economy memo, rife with Trump’s self-congratulations.  He claims that the economy is expanding, and job growth is surging, while saying his leadership is driving down inflation. He credits himself with taming inflation, reviving job growth, spurring record investment, and igniting a stock market recovery.  He’s a modern-day Moses, parting the economic Red Sea.

Bloomberg columnists Mark Niquette and Gregory Korte beg to differ. They argue Trump’s scattershot tariffs shrank the U.S. economy for the first time in three years, tanked the stock market, crushed the dollar, and actually widened the trade deficit.

Carney’s Conscious Uncoupling
When Gwyneth Paltrow (Pepper Potts to Marvel fans) dumped her husband, Coldplay vocalist Chris Martin, she announced it with soothing sentimental fluff: “It is with hearts full of sadness that we have decided to separate.”

Mark Carney was blunter when he discussed the Canada/US relationship in a speech on March 28. He said, “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies… is over.” He went on to say, “We will need to dramatically reduce our reliance on the United States. We will need to pivot our trade relationships elsewhere, and we will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven’t seen in generations.”

He isn’t wasting any time.  Early trips to France and the UK suggest Carney wants to double down on CETA, the trade agreement with the EU that’s already delivered a 65% surge in goods trade and a 73% jump in services since 2017. The snag? Ten EU countries, including France and Italy, still haven’t ratified it. But with Trump throwing tariff bombs at Europe, their leaders may soon be screaming for a pen.

Resource Wealth vs Saving the Planet

Canada ranks among the top countries globally in both the size and variety of its natural resources. We have tons (literally) of critical and industrial minerals, metals, forestry, and agricultural resources alongside the fifth-largest natural gas reserves and over $13 trillion in proven oil reserves. Ka-ching!

But there’s a catch! Carney’s green halo hasn’t vanished. The former UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance has not said anything about removing the oil sands emissions cap.  But if he doesn’t it could chase Alberta right out of Confederation. The break from the U.S. supply chain playbook, combined with Alberta’s political rumblings, adds another layer of headline risk for the loonie—already at the mercy of commodity flows and Fed policy.

Canada may be marching to Carney’s rhythm, but trade spats and Alberta’s fury could see the loonie thrashed like Lars Ulrich’s kit—mid-solo.

Sources: Bloomberg, Liberal Party of Canada, The White House