USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2869-1.2941      

USDCAD bounced between 1.2888 and 1.2940 overnight while trying to find direction. A pop in WTI oil from $44.16 to $44.90 in very early New York trading sent USDCAD down to 1.2869 from 1.2915.  The price action is indicative of a market content to chop around while awaiting fresh data.

Asia FX markets were lively despite little rationale for moves. USDJPY dropped to 108.50 from 109.20 and spent the rest of the Asia and European sessions hovering around the low. NZDUSD rallied because the RNNZ’s Financial Stability Review was not as doveish as expected. AUDUSD has bounced between 0.7330 and 0.7390 and is now at the middle of that range.

GBPUSD traded heavily in Europe undermined by soft data while EURUSD flat-lined. That change (slightly)in New York when EURUSD spiked to 1.1420 from 1.1390 for no apparent reason.  Still the narrow EURUSD, 1.1355-1.1440 range remains mostly intact.

Oil prices tried and failed to move higher in Asia, dipped in Europe and have spiked above the overnight peak since New York walked in. Prices have since reversed. The strength in WTI is despite yesterday’s end of day report of another rise in Crude stocks according to API.

Once again, there isn’t any US or Canadian data of significance to provide FX direction, leaving oil and equities as the only source of inspiration.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals turned bearish with the decisive break below 1.2940 which represents the uptrend line from May 3 and multiple tops on intraday charts.  The move below 1.2885 suggests further losses to 1.2820 and then the 1.2740-60 area.  A move above 1.2940 will target 1.3020.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2860 and 1.2820.  Resistance is at 1.2890 and 1.2940.

Today’s Range 1.2820-1.2920

Chart: USDCAD hourly