October 24, 2019

USDCAD open 1.3079-83 (6:00am EDT)  Overnight Range 1.3062-1.3083

FX markets bid “Farewell” to European Central Bank (ECB)President Mario Draghi this morning. At his last meeting, the ECB did as they were expected, and left interest rates and policy unchanged. 

US Durable Goods Orders were a tad worse than expected, falling 1.1% in October but the data may have been skewed by the GM strike.  Weekly Jobless claims were slightly better than forecast but FX markets ignored both reports..

The US dollar gave back yesterday’s small gains against the commodity currency bloc and opened with tiny gains.

FX Market Snapshot

Change in currency value against the US dollar from New York close to New York open 

EURUSD opened unchanged after trading in a 1.1125-61 range. Prices peaked when France Manufacturing PMI data was better than expected, but the move reversed when German and Eurozone PMI reports disappointed. German Manufacturing PMI rose 41.9 in October (September 41.7), and Eurozone PMI was unchanged from September at 45.7. Sweden’s Riksbank left its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% but repeated its intention to exit negative rates by year-end.

GBPUSD is hovering around 1.2900 after trading in a  1.2877-1.2948 range. The UK Guardian reports Boris Johnson is mulling over a pre-Christmas election while he awaits the EU27 decision on the UK request to grant an extension. That decision may not happen until tomorrow.

In Asia, USDJPY traded sideways in a 108.58-108.74 range while the Antipodean currencies inched lower. Australia Manufacturing PMI rose 50.1 which was better than forecast but a touch weaker than the September result. AUDUSD dipped to 0.6827 from 0.6856.

WTI oil prices consolidate yesterday’s gains, trading in a $55.45-$55.85/barrel range. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 1.7 million dip in US crude inventories which sparked the rally. On-going fears of slowing crude demand capped the upside.

USDCAD traded quietly and is still sneakily offered. Bearish USDCAD technicals, divergent Fed and Bank of Canada monetary polices, and an improved tone to global risk sentiment are weighing on the currency pair.

There aren’t any Canadian data releases on tap.

USDCAD Technical View

The intraday and short term technicals are bearish.  The two-week old downtrend from 1.3310 is intact while prices are below 1.3100 and the September downtrend is intact below 1.3340.  However, prices are bumping up against a major resistance zone between 1.3010-40, which includes the long-term uptrend line from September 2012.  A decisive breach of the bottom would target 1.2728.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3070 and 1.3040.  Resistance is at 1.3090 and 1.3120.  Today’s Range 1.3040-1.3100

Chart:  USDCAD daily

Source Saxo Bank