Market Commentary & News

Agility Daily FX Commentary

April 17, 2025

USDCAD: open 1.3892, overnight range 1.3855-1.3897, close 1.3858

USDCAD dropped from 1.3928 to 1.3873 after the BoC surprised about half of the market and left interest rates unchanged at 2.75%. Prices continued to drift lower throughout the day, with the down move exacerbated by US recession fears which trumped Fed Chair Powell’s somewhat hawkish comments about inflation.

The BoC did not provide much in the way of forward guidance except to say that the economic consequences of a long-lasting global trade war are severe.

USDCAD fell mainly because of increased US recession fears, which sparked further selling of US assets, but ran out of steam in the 1.3810 support area.

Global FX trading action was somewhat reduced because of Easter weekend holidays in Scandinavia and Portugal.

Today’s US weekly jobless claims beat expectations and fell by 9,000 to 215,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey diffusion index dropped by 39 points to -26.4 in April and March building permits were higher than expected. There are no Canadian reports of note.

Financial markets are closed in most major centers tomorrow, including the US, Canada, EU, Scandinavia, Australia and New Zealand

USDCAD Technicals

The intraday USDCAD technicals are neutral with prices consolidating in a 1.3810-1.3990 range. A break above 1.3990 targets 1.4060 while a move below 1.3810 targets 1.3750.

The longer term technicals are bearish below 1.4160, a downtrend line guarded by resistance at 1.3990. A decisive break below 1.3810 targets the 1.3730-50 area.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3840 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3920 and 1.3960

Today’s Range: 1.3850-1.3950

Chart: USDCAD daily

FX at a Glance

Hawkish Sounding Powell Berated by Trump.

Jerome Powell is in no hurry to cut rates and that is what he reiterated in yesterday’s speech. He is concerned that Trump’s tariffs could spark a more persistent rise in prices, which may be more of an issue than a weaker job market. Those comments helped fuel a sell-off on Wall Street.

Trump was annoyed at Powell’s stance and took to his TruthSocial account to vent. He said “The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess! Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

Equities are Mixed

Asian equity markets ignored Wall Street’s losses and bought stocks. The onset of Japanese and US trade talks powered the Topix to a 1.29% gain, while recent gains in gold prices helped Australia’s ASX post a 0.78% gain. European bourses are trading with losses with the German Dax down 0.63%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.53% and the US 10-year Treasury yield is steady at 4.28%. Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating recent gains and sits at 3325.55

EURUSD
NY Open: 1.1372, Overnight Range: 1.1336-1.1410
EURUSD ticked lower after the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps to 2.25% as expected citing declining headline and core inflation which is expected to settle around the medium-term target of 2.0%. the statement warned “the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions. Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. The ECB press conference is just starting.

GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.3240, Overnight Range: 1.3203-1.3260
GBPUSD is trading sideways above 1.3200 but below yesterday’s peak, supported by US dollar weakness and speculation that a US/UK trade deal is close. Traders are also awaiting the ECB monetary policy decision today.

USDJPY
NY Open: 142.80, Overnight Range: 141.62-143.09
USDJPY clawed back its post-Powell losses and opened little changed from yesterday. Japan and US officials are talking trade in Washington, but so far, no breakthroughs have been announced. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed worries about the global economy from Trump’s tariff plans, which are also causing global market turmoil.

AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6355, Overnight Range: 0.6334-0.6377
AUDUSD shuffled inside yesterday’s range, with Australia’s labour report not having much impact. Australia recouped some of last month’s job losses, gaining 32,200 compared to a loss of 57,500 previously. AUDUSD remained underpinned by broad US dollar weakness and hopes that China and the US will open trade talks. Analysts still expect that the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps at its May and July meetings.

NZDUSD
NY Open: 0.5928, Overnight Range: 0.5900-0.5944
NZDUSD recouped yesterday’s losses after Powell’s comments knocked Wall Street for a loop and sent the greenback tumbling. Inflation was hotter than expected, with CPI rising 2.5% y/y compared to the forecast of 2.3% and 2.2% previously. ANZ economists suggest the data will not keep the RBNZ from easing rates with an OCR target of 2.75% by August, from 3.5% today.

USDMXN
NY Open: 19.9383, Overnight Range: 19.9077-19.9543
Mexican markets are closed today for Maundy Thursday and USDMXN consolidated yesterday’s losses overnight. Trump’s tweet that about having a productive call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum knocked USDMXN through its overnight low to 19.8791. Wednesday’s bullish technical setup proved to be a false break, as USDMXN could not sustain the move above 20.0700. Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, which drove Wall Street lower, fueled broad US dollar selling and USDMXN dropped as well.

Chart: USDMXN 4 hour