June 13, 2025

USDCAD: open 1.3627, overnight range 1.3592-1.3652, close 1.3603

USDCAD dropped yesterday following weaker than expected US jobless claims and PPI reports which encouraged additional speculation about the Fed easing in September. That sentiment continued into the early hours of Asian trading before the focus turned to risk aversion on the news of Israels attack on Iran. USDCAD rallied but remained well below yesterday’s peak of 1.3677, partially because of the surge in oil prices.

WTI oil closed at 68.79 yesterday then soared to 77.58 in Asia before falling to 73.56 in early NY trading. The decline is partially due to profit-taking as the Israeli attack was well-telegraphed and because Iran’s oil infrastructure was not targeted.

Canada hosts the G-7 Summit next week, when world leaders arrive in Kananaskis Alberta on Sunday.  Officials have already planned to pre-empt Trump’s grandstanding by declining to issue a communique.  Nevertheless, its Trump, and it will be fun to watch Prime Ministers and Presidents grovelling in an attempt to curry favour with America’s King.

Canada Manufacturing and Wholesale Sales data were weaker than expected in April but the news did not have any impact on USDCAD trading.  Later today,the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is due.

The 10:00 am option expiry window has $1.0 billion of 1.3595-1.3600 USDCAD strikes maturing.

USDCAD Technicals

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from yesterday.  They are bearish while prices are below 1.3670 and looking for a decisive break below the 1.3590 to extend losses to 1.3550. A move above 1.3680 would meet resistance at 1.3710.

The medium term technicals remain bearish but momentum indicators are showing signs of becoming oversold. However, only a move above 1.3750 would negate the downside pressure. The longer-term uptrend line from June 2021 is intact above 1.3550.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3590 and 1.3550. Resistance is at 1.3670 and 1.3710
Today’s Range: 1.3580-1.3670

Chart: USDCAD monthly

FX at a Glance

Israel Bombs Iran

Iran’s long-standing ambition to eradicate Israel suffered a crushing blow overnight after an estimated 200 Israeli fighter jets struck 100 high-value targets across the country. The Natanz nuclear facility was reportedly destroyed, and key military figures including the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, and the head of Emergency Command, were killed in the raids. Tehran was apoplectic, but its options for retaliation were limited. Israel has spent the past two years systematically dismantling Iran’s network of proxy militias.

Trump tweeted that the raid was Iran’s fault for not making a deal with him, deliberately overlooking the fact that a Trump deal is not worth the paper it is written on.

Trump Tariffs Bombing US Economy
Trump’s economic attack on all countries exporting products to the US has soured tourists from visiting America. A month ago, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) forecast that visitor spending in the US would decline by $12.5 billion in 2025. The report noted that the US is “the only country among 184 economies analysed by WTTC and Oxford Economics, forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025.”

The recent images of massive ICE raids targeting any and all “foreign looking people” with arrest and immediate deportation suggest tourists avoiding the US have made a great decision.
Trump has set his sights on households, at least those that use appliances like washing machines, dryers, refrigerators and any others made with steel parts. The Commerce Department announced that these steel derivative products will face a 50% tariff on June 23.

Trump also got into the act (again) and warned of higher auto tariffs in the future. He is convinced his tariff plan is working and pointed to announcements by GM and Hyundai as evidence. GM plans to invest $4 billion in 3 new plants while Hyundai is talking about a $21 billion investment. Trump said, “They wouldn’t have invested 10 cents if we didn’t have tariffs, including for manufacturing American steel, which is doing great.”

Global Equities Drop
Equity traders did not panic following the news of the Israeli attack on Iran, but they did book some profits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.59%, Japan’s Topix closed down 0.95% and Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.21%. European bourses have recovered some earlier losses, but the German Dax is still down by 1.11%, the French CAC 40 has fallen by 0.80% while the UK FTSE 100 is nearly unchanged. S&P 500 futures have lost 0.84% as of 5:45 am PDT.  The 10-year Treasury yield dropped then popped and is sitting at the top of its 4.31-4.37% range. Gold (XAUUSD) soared, rising from 3380.68 to 3444.53 and it is sitting at 3430.12 in NY

EURUSD
NY Open: 1.1521, Overnight Range: 1.1512-1.1614
EURUSD erased most of yesterday’s gains on the news of Israel’s attack on Iran. The loss had far more to do with the 16% rally in crude oil prices from yesterday’s low to the overnight peak than it did with safe haven selling for greenbacks. WTI prices have retreated from the peak but the single currency remains at its overnight low. The EURUSD uptrend from the end of February remains intact above 1.1390 supported by recent soft US data that suggest the Fed will cut rates in September.

GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.3544, Overnight Range: 1.3522-1.3632
GBPUSD erased most of yesterday’s gains that occurred following soft US jobless claims and PPI data, but like the euro, GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and expectations for the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 4.25% at next week’s meeting supports the trend.

USDJPY
NY Open: 144.14, Overnight Range: 142.80-144.16
USDJPY fell in Asia, but the move was short-lived, and prices rallied and opened near the top of the range in early NY trading. Short-term safe haven demand for yen was overwhelmed by demand for USDJPY after oil prices surged. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave rates unchanged at the June 17 meeting.

AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6482, Overnight Range: 0.64737-0.6534
Negative risk sentiment from the Israeli attack on Iran and the surge in oil prices drove AUDUSD steadily lower overnight. Prices continued to fall in early NY trading. The downside is supported by hopes of an improvement in the US and China trade relationship and by expectations that the RBA leaves rates unchanged in July.

NZDUSD
NY Open: 0.6010 Overnight Range: 0.6005–0.6071
NZDUSD erased all of yesterday’s gains and is sitting at the overnight low because of heightened risk aversion.

USDMXN
NY Open: 18.9581, Overnight Range: 18.8960–18.9810
USDMXN recouped yesterday’s losses on the news of the Israeli attack on Iran, but the downtrend from mid-April suggests the move is merely a correction. However, Trump’s latest threat to impose a 50% tariff on steel derivatives may limit the downside.

China

PBoC fix:  7.1772 vs exp. 7.1685 (Prev. 7.1803)

Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 0.72% to 3864.18

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik said that the China tariff pause would not be extended. His words were ignored because it is Trump that makes the decision, not him.

FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.

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