Agility Daily FX Commentary

June 17, 2025

USDCAD: open 1.3565, overnight range 1.3563-1.3584, close 1.3572

USDCAD traded sideways in a tight range overnight as the weekend drama over the Israeli attack on Iran is viewed as just more “Middle East noise” and not the opening of a global crisis, financial or otherwise.

The G-7 leaders were united (at least Mark Carney’s statement suggests as much) in affirming that Israel has the right to defend itself and that Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror. The G-7 agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

Trade deals were sorely lacking. Earlier rumours that Trump and Carney would announce a new Canada/US trade deal at the G-7 proved false. The only thing announced was that both parties agreed to negotiate with hopes of coming to terms within the “coming 30 days” — take that word salad and toss it.

Trump never learned that it is considered rude to “eat and run” and blew off the rest of the G-7 meetings after dinner on Monday, saying he had “big stuff” to do.

WTI oil prices rose from 69.56 to 72.11 after Trump warned that “Tehran should evacuate.” Prices were 71.33 in early NY as Tehran remains standing but recouped some overnight losses and are at 71.67 as of 5:30 am PDT. Oil traders are concerned about a supply disruption if Iran follows through on threats to close the Hormuz Strait, which would choke about 20% of the world’s petroleum liquids.

US May Retail Sales headline number was weaker than forecast, falling 0.9% (forecast -0.7% m/m), but the results won’t have much if any impact on FOMC deliberations.

Still to come—Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories.

USDCAD Technicals
The intraday USDCAD technicals unchanged from yesterday.  They are bearish below 1.3605 but momentum indicators are at extreme oversold levels suggesting USDCAD is vulnerable to a bounce to 1.3650.

The medium-term technicals are bearish, but the decisive move below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level targets the 100% level at 1.3430.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3550 and 1.3510. Resistance is at 1.3600 and 1.3630.
Today’s Range: 1.3510–1.3610
Chart: USDCAD daily

FX at a Glance

G-7 Summit Deflates

President Trump was the undisputed star of the G-7. World leaders queued to curry favour by appealing to his ego. As Toronto Sun’s Brian Lilley noted, Canada’s Prime Minister Carney was at the front of the line. Mr. Carney gushed, “The G-7 is nothing without US leadership and so your personal leadership, leadership of the United States, and many issues, geopolitics, economic, technology, and working hand in hand with the United States, Canada and United States and other G-7 partners with your leadership. I’m grateful to have you.” Trump seemed to have heard only “The G-7 is nothing without US leadership,” which may be why he left early.

Equities Slip on Oil
The ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine are increasing risks to the global oil supply chain and that weighed on equities overnight. Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.34% while the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision helped Japan’s Topix gain 0.35%

European bourses are in negative territory but off their worst levels. The German DAX is down 0.85%, the French CAC 40 has lost 0.63%, and the UK FTSE 100 is off by 0.31%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.37%. A report from Citibank forecasting that gold would fall to 3300 over the next 3 months helped knock XAUUSD down from 3403.37 to 3384.33 in  NY trading. The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.416% from 4.445%.(As of 5:50 am PDT)

EURUSD
NY Open: 1.1557, Overnight Range: 1.1543-1.1572
EURUSD traded defensively inside yesterday’s range in part because ECB policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned higher oil prices were a risk to price stability. It’s not really news but it was a slow news day. The single currency did not get much support from German ZEW data which rose to 47.5 from 25.2 in May. Enthusiasm for the results was tempered by the lack of progress in US and EU trade talks.

GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.3544, Overnight Range: 1.3542-1.3592
GBPUSD is trading sideways despite Trump re-announcing a US/UK trade deal which Trump justified by saying “I like them.” Traders are also awaiting the outcome from tomorrow’s FOMC and Thursday’s Bank of England meetings. Both central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged.

USDJPY
NY Open: 144.83, Overnight Range: 144.40-145.11
USDJPY traded choppily but with a bid. Safe-haven demand for yen after Trump warned Iranians to evacuate Tehran was offset by the Bank of Japan’s decision to slow the pace of tapering because of Middle East tensions and tariff threats. The BoJ left its benchmark rate unchanged, as expected.

AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6528, Overnight Range: 0.6504-0.6544
AUDUSD squeezed out gains due to the belief that the current Israel and Iran war was just a regional issue. Traders are hoping that today’s US data will be weak enough to spur additional calls for Fed rate cuts.

NZDUSD

NY Open 0.6063, Overnight Range 0.6045–0.6080
NZDUSD firmed up through the session, ending near its overnight peak. The move was supported by optimism that easing Middle East tensions and weaker US data could drive dovish momentum for the Fed.

USDMXN
NY Open: 18.9582 Overnight Range: 18.9072-18.9665
USDMXN continues to consolidate earlier gains with improved risk sentiment helping to limit gains.  Traders are waiting for Wednesdays FOMC decision and the updated dot-plot forecast.

China
China
PBoC fix: 7.1746 vs exp. 7.1820 (prev. 7.1789)
Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 0.09% to 3870.38

FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.

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