Agility Daily FX Commentary
June 24, 2025
USDCAD: open 1.3714, overnight range 1.3708-1.3738, close 1.3735
USDCAD is in retreat after failing to break above 1.3800 yesterday due to widespread US dollar selling pressure as safe-haven trades get unwound but the sell-off faces headwinds from sharply lower oil prices.
Traders are looking ahead to today’s inflation report for clues on BoC interest rate intentions. It wasn’t much help. CPI rose 0.6% m/m in May (forecast 0.5%, previous -0.1%). More importantly the BoC core inflation reading was 2.5% y/y but rose 0.6% m/m in May.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced he would reach the 2.0% of GDP NATO spending target this year and he will discuss the plan with NATO leaders today. However, 2% is the old target—Trump is demanding a 5% commitment. A key question for taxpayers is “where will the money come from?”
Today’s US data includes Case-Shiller Home Prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powells Congressional testimony overshadows it all.
USDCAD Technical Outlook: The intraday technicals are bearish following the failure to extend gains above 1.3800. However, the retreat is just a correction if prices stay above 1.3700 which reverted to support after being resistance. A move above 1.3740 would negate the downside and target another test of 1.3800. A break below 1.3700 targets 1.3660.
The medium-term outlook is unchanged. The technicals suggest the rally is a correction unless prices break above the 100 and 200 day moving averages at 1.4041 and 1.4034 respectively.
For today, USDCAD support is 1.3700 and 1.3660. Resistance is 1.3740 and 1.3790. Today’s Range 1.3690-1.3740.
Chart: USDCAD daily
Markets in Brief
The war between Iran and Israel is over. Trump said so. The President declared that the ceasefire was effective around 1:00 am EDT. He tweeted: “Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’ I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS! Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH. The future for Israel & Iran is UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE. GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!”
The news came after Iran’s retaliation against the US was rather lame—something designed to appease Iranian hard-liners while avoiding the wrath of Trump. The Iranian missile attack on a US military base in Qatar occurred after Iran notified Qatari and US officials of the date, time, and number of projectiles in the attack. That’s like a burglar calling the police and telling them when and where a burglary would occur.
Peacemaker Trump has turned his attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell (again) and ranted (via TruthSocial) about “Too Late” Jerome Powell refusing to lower “the RATE.” Mr. Powell testifies before the US House Financial Services Committee today. The question for markets is “Is today the day Powell announces he is in touch with his dovish side?” If so, the US dollar will add to its overnight losses.
The quick resolution to what Trump wants to call “The 12-day War” shifts the focus back to tariffs and interest.
Crudely Speaking
WTI oil erased all its gains since June 11 with prices dropping 17.9% (peak to trough) since yesterday’s top. The Trump-announced ceasefire greatly reduced the risk that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, which would have disrupted 20% of the world’s crude supply. Prices have bounced to 66.62 on profit-taking.
Stock Taking
It’s “Risk-On” for global equity traders. Wall Street got the ball rolling and closed with gains across the board. Asian traders reacted to the ceasefire news and bought stocks. Australia’s ASX 200 finished with a gain of 0.95%, Japan’s Topix rose 0.73%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng soared 2.06%.
European bourses are sharply higher (but off their best levels) led by a 1.720% rally in the German DAX and a 1.20% jump in the French CAC 40. The UK FTSE 100 index is the laggard with only a 0.32% gain. S&P 500 futures are up 0.71% as of 5:45 am PDT, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.35%. Gold jumped to 3455.41 last Wednesday, then dropped to 3316.21 overnight and sits at 3313.14 in NY.
EURUSD
EURUSD erased all yesterday’s losses and reclaimed its pre-Israel-Iran war peak as traders unwound safe-haven US dollar trades. Trump’s Middle East ceasefire shifted the focus from oil supply disruption to economic data and the US interest rate outlook. The German Ifo survey rose for the 6th month in a row, which suggests a more positive outlook for the economy thanks to the new German government’s spending plans and the prospect of lower ECB rates. Furthermore, recent Fed speakers (Waller and Bowman) have been advocating for lower US rates, and today Powell will give his view. The EURUSD technicals are bullish with the March uptrend line intact while prices are above 1.1440 and looking for a test of 1.1670.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD traders embraced the Iran/Israel ceasefire news with passion and drove GBPUSD from yesterday’s low of 1.3373 to 1.3617 in early NY trading today. GBPUSD may have seen additional support from lingering positive sentiment around the UK/US trade deal that goes into effect on Monday. US tariffs on UK auto imports drop to 10% while steel tariffs are eliminated. The GBPUSD technicals are bullish and looking for a break of 1.3740 to extend gains to 1.3900.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped sharply on the shift to risk-seeking with prices falling from 147.63 yesterday to 144.85 today. Prices are at 145.01 in NY with the slide supported by the dip in the US 10-year Treasury yield. Longer term, the USDJPY downtrend is intact while prices are below 146.30 and looking for a move below 142.80.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD rebounded on the back of broad US dollar weakness, rising from 0.6450 to 0.6515. Prices continue to benefit from speculation that recent PMI data will keep the RBA sidelined at the next meeting. NZDUSD tracked AUDUSD and rose from 0.5950 to 0.6039 due to improved risk sentiment.
USDMXN
USDMXN retraced Monday’s gains and fell from 19.3361 to 19.0121 today due to the return to positive risk sentiment after Trump orchestrated an Israel/Iran ceasefire. Traders are looking ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for hints that US rates will be reduced.
USDCNY
PBoC fix: 7.1656 vs exp. 7.1605 (prev. 7.1710)
Shanghai Shenzhen 300 rose 1.20% to 3904.03
FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.
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