April 29, 2025
USDCAD: open 1.3847, overnight range 1.3808-1.3872, close 1.3829
USDCAD remains rangebound and traded quietly. The Canadian election was not a factor for traders.
Mark Carney led the Liberal party to a fourth consecutive victory and in the process, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost their seats.
Mr. Carney was effusive in his thanks for the efforts of his campaign workers, but he avoided saying thank you to US President Donald Trump. He should have because it was Trump’s deliberate election interference (51st state comments, etc.) that handed Carney a victory. The Liberals exploited the comments to frame Conservatives as dangerously aligned with Trump’s populist movement.
Canadians can now expect a tidal wave of regulation, mandatory electric vehicle mandates, and a declining standard of living as the former UN climate crusader — now Prime Minister — takes a wrecking ball to Canada’s fossil fuel industry.
Chunky option expiries bracket USDCAD between 1.3800-25 ($3.13 billion) and 1.3925-35 area ($925 million).
WTI oil traded defensively in a 60.92-62.08 range due to continuing fears of increased production and slowing demand.
The health of the US economy is on display today with the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report and consumer confidence, followed by tomorrow’s GDP and PCE Price Index data.
USDCAD Technicals
The USDCAD intraday technicals are mixed inside a 1.3790-1.3880 range. A move below 1.3790 targets 1.3740 while a break above 1.3880 suggests a retest of the 1.4000 area.
Longer term, the USDCAD is trading with a bearish bias while prices are below 1.4010 and the move below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level supports further weakness to 1.3740. A decisive break above 1.3950 would negate the downward pressure.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3790 and 1.3740. Resistance is at 1.3890 and 1.3950
Today’s Range: 1.3790-1.3890
Chart: USDCAD daily.
FX at a Glance
Trump Feeling the Heat
Trump is the personification of a narcissist. That is evident in his plunging approval ratings, which are the lowest of any President in at least 70 years. That explains why he is heading to Michigan today to rally the population. He needs to convince Americans that everything is going according to plan, and that plan calls for easing some tariffs on foreign car parts.
Global Equity Indexes Rally
Australia’s ASX 200 surged 0.92% on the back of higher commodity prices, including uranium stocks. Japanese markets were closed. European bourses opened in positive territory and then traded sideways. The German DAX rose 0.66% while the French CAC 40 index fell 0.14%. The UK FTSE 100 is down 0.20%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.28% and the US 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.21%. Gold (XAUUSD) drifted lower and is trading at 3312.00 in NY.
EURUSD
NY Open: 1.1381, Overnight Range: 1.1374-1.1423
EURUSD is trading near the bottom of its overnight range as it consolidates recent gains, with prices weighed down by soft economic sentiment data. April EU Economic Sentiment Index was 93.6 compared to 95 in March, while Industrial Confidence worsened to -11.2 from -10.7. The results were expected due to Trump’s tariffs.
GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.3396, Overnight Range: 1.3394-1.3444
GBPUSD is giving back some of yesterday’s gains despite a modest improvement in BRC Shop Price Index to -0.1% from -0.4%. Data provider Kantar said that supermarket prices rose 3.8% in the four weeks ending April 20. BP said its Green Energy Chief Giulia Chierchia is leaving as the giant oil company backs away from low-carbon investments. Fortunately, she may find huge demand for her services in Carbon-Tax Carney’s Canada.
USDJPY
NY Open: 142.74, Overnight Range: 142.01-142.75
USDJPY is at the top of its overnight range as it recoups yesterday’s risk aversion losses. However, volumes were lower than usual as Japan was closed for a holiday.
AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6403, Overnight Range: 0.6398-0.6450
AUDUSD consolidated recent gains that were driven by hopes for an improved tone to US and China trade talks. However, since China continues to say that they are not talking, those hopes are misguided. Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s inflation data, which is expected to have eased, paving the way for an RBA rate cut. NZDUSD in a 0.5947-0.5987 range and mirrored AUDUSD movements.
USDMXN
NY Open: 19.6300, Overnight Range: 19.5701-19.6508
USDMXN is trading with a bid tone despite yesterday’s higher trade surplus data and a dip in the unemployment rate. Mexico Q1 GDP is due tomorrow.
China Snapshot`
PBoC fix: 7.2029 vs exp. 7.2781 (Prev. 7.2043)
Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 0.17% to 3775.08
China continues to refuse to talk tariffs with the US and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned BRICS nations not to cave into US threats as it would only embolden the “bully.”
China has diverted soybean imports from American farmers to Brazil.
FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.
