March 11, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3573, overnight range 1.3555-1.3586, close 1.3579

USDCAD traded sideways and rather uneventfully inside its well-travelled range. The Canadian dollar continues to garner some support from higher oil prices but not as much as the country’s oil wealth would suggest. That’s because of the anti-energy policies of the Trudeau era that are now biting them on the buttocks.

Canada’s energy minister has reportedly asked domestic producers how much additional crude they could release into the market. The simple answer is a lot more, but Quebec and BC are blocking pipelines.

Carney’s government is inching closer to a majority with a Nunavut NDP MP deciding her fortunes and chances for re-election are better served under the Liberal banner.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are little changed from yesterday. They are bearish while trading below 1.3590 and looking to test support at 1.3510. A break above 1.3620 would extend gains to 1.3660.

The medium-term technicals are bearish while trading below remains well below1.3730 which is guarding the longer-term downtrend line from February 2025 which comes into play at 1.3960. The daily RSI around 30 suggests that USDCAD is approaching oversold.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3530 and 1.3510. Resistance is at 1.3590 and 1.3620.

Today’s Range: 1.3530–1.3610.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Overnight Round-up

Trump said that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much,” on Monday but he forgot to tell the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC commander said he would use only missiles with 1-ton warheads, even as Iran launched another wave of attacks at Gulf nations.

Iran began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, but the success of the venture is questionable after the US claimed it sunk 11 Iranian minelayers.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the release of 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves. The IEA has 32 nation-members and if even one nation objects, the oil release would be delayed. French President Macron is hosting a video call today with other G-7 leaders to discuss the oil situation.

The US dollar is starting the NY session with gains across the board, albeit not substantially. The US dollar index (DXY) climbed steadily in Europe and into the NY session.

February CPI was in line with forecasts, rising 2.4% y/y and Core CPI rose 2.5%.

Chart: US dollar index (DXY)

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets climbed with softer crude prices. Japan’s Topix rose 0.94%, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.50% but the Hong Kong Hang Seng slipped by 0.24%.

As of 5:35 am PT, European bourses are under water. The German DAX is down 1.27%, the French CAC 40 has lost 0.67%, the UK FTSE 100 has dropped 0.70% while S&P 500 futures have dipped 0.17%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.194% and gold (XAUUSD) is 5,169.68

EURUSD

EURUSD bounced in a 1.1590-1.1646 range with the peak seen in Asia. The sell-off coincided with higher oil prices. Oil price volatility has overshadowed economic data and this morning’s release of German retail sales numbers for February was ignored (actual CPI 0.2% m/m, unchanged).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3403-1.3458 range and is trading at 1.3435 in early NY. Recent oil price gains have pushed UK gilt yields higher due to increasing fears of an inflationary spike and have increased the odds for a BoE rate hike to 100% by September and 80% by July.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded with a bid tone in a 157.87-158.49 range. Japan is a large importer of oil and the recent gains and uncertainty surrounding crude prices have overshadowed Japan’s status as a safe haven currency destination. The US/Iran war and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus policies have downgraded BoJ rate hike risks.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded in a 0.7112-0.7176 range overnight but has dropped from its peak level due to renewed US dollar demand against the majors. A majority of economists in a recent survey expect the RBA to raise rates by 25 bps to 4.10% at the March 17 meeting.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded higher in a 17.5273-17.6564 range due to renewed US dollar strength against the majors. On Monday, Mexican inflation data was released and it was hotter than expected, which helped cap US dollar gains as it allows Banxico to maintain a hawkish interest rate outlook.

China

USDCNY Fix: 6.8917 vs exp. 6.8824 (Prev. 6.8982)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.64% to 4,704.50

Trump has managed to bring India and China closer together. India has eased curbs on Chinese investments in capital goods, electronics and solar components.

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview