March 17, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3696, overnight range 1.3680-1.3708, close 1.3687

Top o’ the morning to ya!  It’s St Patrick’s Day.  “Irish hearts are singing, and Guinness pints are flinging.” Except in Iran. The IRGC fired drones at a UAE natural gas field, prompting the suspension of oil loadings at a Fujairah, a major port.

WTI spiked from 92.93 to 97.63/b on the news of Iran’s attacks on Gulf State crude infrastructure and is trading at 96.24/b in early NY. Trump is pressuring G-7 leaders to form a coalition to help open the Strait of Hormuz, but no one is rushing to sign up. In fact, the Strait is only closed to US and its allies shipping, not to India, Pakistan or China.

Canadian inflation rose 0.5% in February which was rather tame but Trump’s war in Iran made the data stale.  Oil prices are sharply higher now and if they remain elevated for a prolonged period will eventually raise prices for almost everything.  But not now.

Tomorrow, BoC policymakers will discuss the last Friday’s weak employment report and yesterday’s tame inflation data but ultimately ignore it, using the cover of the Iran war to justify their inertia.

There are no top tier US or Canadian economic reports on tap.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from yesterday.  They are bullish while the weeklong uptrend line at 1.3660 is intact and looking for a retest of resistance at 1.3740. move back below 1.3660 would put 1.3620 support back in play.

The medium-term technicals suggest USDCAD is modestly bid inside the well-entrenched 1.3520-1.3760 range that has contained prices since February 23. A break above 1.3760 targets 1.3850 while a move below 1.3520 puts 1.3460 in play.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3660 and 1.3620. Resistance is at 1.3730 and 1.3760.

Today’s Range: 1.3650–1.3740

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Needing a Win

Trump is delaying his planned trip to Beijing and summit with Xi Jinping so he can oversee the military operations in Iraq. That is probably a mistake as Trump is managing the Iran attack as effectively as he managed the Trump Taj Mahal casino, which opened then went bankrupt within a year.

He needs a win and although Greenland proved to be a more formidable adversary than he anticipated, the impoverished island of Cuba, ninety miles off the coast of the US, looks appetizing. Yesterday he said, “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it. They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

That’s what the American’s thought in April 1961, when President John F. Kennedy backed an attempt by a force of Cuban exiles to overthrow Castro. The Bay of Pigs was a fiasco for the US.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed higher. Japan’s Topix gained 0.45%, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.36%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.13%.

As of 5:00 am PT, European bourses are higher. The UK FTSE 100 is up 0.71%, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.59%, and the German DAX is up 0.22%.  S&P 500 futures have lost 0.17%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.221%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $5,004.67.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded in a 1.1466-1.1525 range, with the session low seen in Asia as traders ignored a very weak German ZEW report. Economic Sentiment collapsed, falling 58.8 points to -0.5 in March due to Trump’s attack on Iran and the spike in oil prices. EURUSD is bearish below 1.1590 and looking for a test of support at 1.1410.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3274-1.3340 range as it continues to consolidate recent losses. Price action tracked EURUSD moves due to a lack of UK-specific drivers. The rise in risk aversion following Iran’s latest attacks on Middle East oil infrastructure is also weighing on prices.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded sideways in a 159.01-158.97 range, underpinned by firm oil prices. BoJ Governor Ueda kept rate hike hopes alive when he said that inflation was gradually accelerating toward the 2.0% target but needs to be supported by wage gains. That comment, and concerns that the BoJ would intervene, limited gains.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is near the top of its 0.7049-0.7094 band in early NY trading. The RBA raised its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.10% as expected. Policymakers said that there was a material risk that inflation would remain above target for longer than expected, which is exacerbated by Trump’s war in Iran.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded quietly in a 17.6537-17.7394 range. Prices are supported by the uncertainty around the war in Iran. Banxico is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its March 26 meeting.

China

USDCNY Fix: 6.8961 vs exp. 6.8874 (Prev. 6.9057)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.73% to 4,637.44

Trump ask Xi to delay summit talks adds new uncertainty into ongoing trade talks. Trump wants the delay so he can oversea Iran war but a few days earlier he wanted the delay because he was annoyed that China isn’t helping to open Strait of Horumuz

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview