March 24, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3741, overnight range 1.3722-1.3762, close 1.3721

USDCAD had a wild morning yesterday but after the dust cleared, the reason for broad-based US dollar strength remained unchanged, and USDCAD is currently trading at yesterday’s peak.

Trump says he is in talks with Iran but Iran says it isn’t so and to underline their denial, they fired on targets in Israel and at US military bases in the region overnight.

Traders are biding their time until Trump’s five-day deadline passes and until then, the greenback will remain bid.

WTI oil prices rose from $88.94 to $92.26 overnight and are currently up 2.26%. The possibility that Trump’s war with Iran winds down has allowed WTI to fall by 8.0% in the past five days.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3690 and looking for a break above 1.3760 for a test of resistance at 1.3800.  A move below 1.3690 suggests further 1.3640-1.3760 consolidation

The medium-term USDCAD technicals are neutral because prices remain below the 100-day moving average at 1.3808 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3816. A break above that area is needed to shift the outlook to bullish and target 1.3850-1.3950. Until then, the broader pattern remains range trading rather than a confirmed upside trend.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3690 and 1.3660. Resistance is at 1.3760 and 1.3800.
Today’s Range: 1.3680-1.3780

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Trump and Iran Still Center Stage

Traders are wearing neck braces after yesterday’s wild ride. Trump’s ultimatum, then flip-flop (the ol’ TACO trade) sent financial markets on a wild rollercoaster ride yesterday. This morning, risk sentiment is sour and the US dollar is bid across the board. Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel and US military bases in the Middle East.
Iran officials are denying that US/Iran ceasefire negotiations are taking place.

Fed Turning Hawkish

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is singing a different tune from last week. Yesterday, he warned that the Fed may need to hike rates because of the impact of higher oil prices on the economy. Meanwhile, Trump’s Fed man, Stephen Miran is still calling for four rate cuts this year because the Fed will “look through” oil price shocks.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indices clawed back some of yesterday’s losses. Japan’s Topix rallied by 2.10%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng climbed by 2.79%. Australia’s ASX rose 0.16%.

As of 5:30 am, European bourses are mixed.  The German DAX is down 0.30%, the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.20%, and the French CAC 40 is flat. S&P 500 futures are down 0,25%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.387%, the DXY is 99.32, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 4370.76

EURUSD

EURUSD is consolidating yesterday’s gains in a 1.1576-1.1618 range. Traders ignored Eurozone PMI, which fell to a 10-month low (actual 50.5, previous 51.9), with the dip blamed on Trump’s war with Iran. The EU and Australia have reached a deal giving the EU improved access to critical minerals while Australia gets better access to European consumers..25%

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading nervously in a 1.3380-1.3446 band due to a mix of weak domestic data and broad-based US dollar demand. The S&P Composite PMI Output Index fell to 51.0 from 53.7, Services PMI fell to 53.2 from 53.9, and Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4 from 51.7. S&P noted, “UK private sector firms indicated a marked slowdown in business activity growth during March as the war in the Middle East had an adverse impact on customer demand, input prices and supply chains. Business activity expectations for the year ahead also eased considerably since February, with optimism the lowest since June 2025.” The results pretty much erased the odds for a near-term rate cut.

USDJPY

USDJPY was steady in a 158.28-158.83 range and is trading with a bid due to Trump’s Iran war. Traders ignored BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments saying expected inflation will accelerate moderately, as well as PMI data. The latest S&P Global Flash PMI® data signalled softer expansions in both manufacturing and service sector activity in Japan in March, leading to the slowest rise in overall private sector output for three months.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is trading negatively in a 0.6923-0.7024 range because of elevated risk aversion sentiment. Australia’s S&P Global PMI data disappointed: Composite PMI (47.0 vs previous 52.4), Services PMI (46.6 vs previous 52.8), Manufacturing PMI (50.1 vs 51.0). S&P economist Eleanor Dennison wrote, “March’s S&P Global Flash PMI data showed the Australian economy on a weaker footing as the opening quarter comes to a close.”

USDMXN

USDMXN traded in a 17.7689-17.8756 range and is near the top of that band in NY. Prices climbed to 18.0885 yesterday due to safe-haven demand for dollars following Trump’s 48-hour deadline threat to Iran, then dropped sharply when Trump backed off the threat. Mexican inflation rose 0.62% in the first ½ of March.

China

USDCNY Fix: 6.8943 vs exp. 6.8840 (Prev. 6.9041)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4,474.72

Traders are ignoring reports that Iran plans to require all tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to settle transactions in Chinese yuan

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview