March 25, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3793, overnight range 1.3750-1.3800, close 1.3763

USDCAD has caught a bid and is probing resistance in the 1.3800 area as broad-based US dollar demand pressures the major currencies. FX traders do not appear to be buying into the improved risk tone that other markets appear to be.

Global equity indexes, and gold prices are sharply higher while WTI is down by 4.04% because of numerous reports about a US 15-point plan to end hostilities in Iran. Iran’s IRGC has denied that they are negotiating. An IRGC spokesman said. “”People like us can never get along with people like you. “As we have always said … no one like us will make a deal with you. Not now. Not ever.”

WTI traded in a 86.49-89.57 range and sits at 88.35 in NY.

There are no top tier US or Canadian economic reports today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3690 but facing significant resistance in the 1.3805-1.3820 zone from 100-day and 200-day moving averages.  If prices can get through the resistance, it puts 1.3870 in play. A move below 1.3740 suggests a retest of the 1.3690 area

The medium-term USDCAD technicals are neutral to slightly bullish because prices are testing the 100-day moving average near 1.3810 while holding above the 200-day moving average at 1.3855 on the daily chart. A sustained break above 1.3820 would shift the outlook to bullish and target 1.3900–1.4000. Failure to break higher would keep the broader 1.3600–1.3820 range intact.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3690. Resistance is at 1.3820 and 1.3850.
Today’s Range: 1.3740-1.3820

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

A 15-Point Plan

The US is desperately trying to extricate itself from Trump’s mess in Iran and has reportedly sent a 15-point plan to end the war. The plan supposedly includes: Iran must dismantle its nuclear program/no nuclear weapons, stop enriching uranium, impose restrictions on ballistic missiles, force Iran to stop supporting proxy militias, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the US is deploying thousands of troops to the Middle East in addition to the 82nd Airborne.

That news has sparked some optimism. Global stock markets rallied, oil prices fell, and gold inched higher.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard says Trump is negotiating with himself.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indices extended yesterday’s rally. Japan’s Topix rose 2.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng climbed by 1.09%, and Australia’s ASX rose 1.85%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are in rally mode but off their best levels. The French CAC 40 has gained of 1.18%, the German DAX, is up 1.38%, and the UK FTSE 100, is up 1.02%. S&P 500 futures have risen 0.74%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.34%, the DXY is 99.35, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 4543.77

EURUSD

EURUSD is steady in a 1.1587-1.1631 range, with prices underpinned by mildly positive risk sentiment sparked by lower crude prices. German Ifo Business Climate fell to 86.4 from 88.4 in February, Current Assessment was unchanged at 86.7, and Expectations dipped to 86 from 90.0. Trump’s war in Iraq was a factor. The EURUSD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.1670.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD bounced in a 1.3353-1.3446 range, with the top seen after UK PPI and CPI reports were released and showed that inflation was little changed in February. GBPUSD is also underpinned by the rise in 10-year Gilt yields, which are back to levels last seen in 2008. Markets are pricing in two BoE rate hikes in 2026.

USDJPY

USDJPY see-sawed in a 158.58-159.20 range. The drop in crude prices fueled the losses, but Iran’s denial of negotiations with Trump limited the downside. The BoJ minutes from the January 23 meeting were released, but they were too stale to matter.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD rallied, then sank in a 0.6939-0.7025 range. The initial rally was on the back of improved global risk sentiment from falling oil prices, but uncertainty around the Iran war helped to erase the gains.

USDMXN

USDMXN was choppy in a 17.6975-17.7605 range, with price action roiled by falling crude prices and Iran’s denial of negotiations. Yesterday’s first half March inflation data and oil prices suggest Banxico will leave rates unchanged at 7.0% at tomorrow’s meeting.

China

USDCNY Fix: 6.8911 vs exp. 6.8819 (Prev. 6.8943)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.40% to 4,537.46

Japan may be downgrading its view of China, from “one of Japan’s most important bilateral relations” to “important neighbor” according to its 2026 Diplomatic Blue Book.

A second Chinese-owned tanker filled with LPG transited the Strait of Hormuz

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview