March 30, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3916, overnight range 1.3880-1.3925, close 1.3893

USDCAD rallied steadily overnight due to a fresh wave of global risk aversion after oil prices surged to a near four-year peak. So much for the Canadian dollar as a “petrocurrency.”

The US and Iran peace talks are going well, according to Trump, who claims Iran has accepted most of his 15-point peace plan. Meanwhile, the Iran Foreign Ministry says that they have not had any direct talks with the US and did not participate in the Pakistan meeting.

Oil traders were not impressed when Trump claimed that he could take Iran’s Kharg Island very easily, which is where 90% of Iran’s oil exports originate. Such a move would involve landing troops and extend the war.

WTI traded in a 99.38-103.37 range with the peak in Asia. Prices have eased to 100.68 in NY

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking at 10:30 am.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3880 and looking for a break above the 1.3920-1.3930 major resistance area to extend gains to 1.4000.  A break below 1.3880 targets 1.3840. However, the momentum indicators are at extreme overbought levels with RSI above 80 and prices pressing the upper Bollinger band which argues that the upside is stretched and vulnerable to a pullback.

The medium-term USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3720 with prices snapping the weekly downtrend line that has guided prices lower since mid-November. Daily RSI near 80 and stretched Bollinger Bands suggest upside is vulnerable to a pullback. A break above 1.3900 opens 1.4000, while failure keeps the 1.3550–1.3900 range intact.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3880 and 1.3840. Resistance is at 1.3930 and 1.3980.

Todays range 1.3860-1.3950.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Risk Aversion Rises

Global traders were on the defensive to start the week because the US, Israel, and Iran all took the offensive. Both sides traded missiles, and the Yemeni Houthis joined in the fray. The fog of war is thick. Trump claims Iran has accepted most of the 15 points in the US peace plan, which Iran denied. Trump also mused about seizing Iranian oil, which suggests American troops could be on the ground in Iran for a while.

The US dollar rallied across the board, with the DXY climbing to 100.34 from 100.05 before easing to 100.24 in early NY trading. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 4.373% but is off its peak level.

This week’s US employment data will not do anything to ease negative risk sentiment. JOLTS job openings, the ADP employment report, and nonfarm payrolls are ahead. NFP may meet with a subdued reaction because Canada and most of Europe are closed on Good Friday.

Fed Chair Powell speaks this morning.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indices closed with losses. Japan’s Topix fell 2.94%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 0.81%, while Australia’s ASX fell 0.65%.

As of 5:35 am PT, European bourses are higher after Treasury yields eased. The German DAX is up 0.30%, the French CAC has gained 0.41%, and the UK FTSE 100 has rallied 1.03%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.79%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.366%, the DXY is 100.30, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 4566.77.

EURUSD

EURUSD is at the bottom of its 1.1484-1.1521 range. The single currency is under pressure because of the rise in crude oil and fears of a more prolonged US and Iran war. The US dollar is bid across the board, and that demand weighed on the single currency. Eurozone Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, and Services Sentiment data were mixed to negative but overshadowed by the Iran/US war.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded poorly in a 1.3224-1.3283 range, with prices weighed down by US dollar demand. Bank of England MPC member Alan Taylor pushed back against expectations for two rate hikes this year. He doesn’t believe inflation risks will become “unanchored” because of a weakening labour market and slowing wage growth.

USDJPY

USDJPY spiked to 160.46 in Asia, then dropped to 159.49 in early NY trading due to hawkish BoJ minutes from the March 19 meeting and rising intervention fears. Japan’s Vice Minister for International Affairs, which includes currency oversight, Atsushi Mimura, said, “We are hearing that speculative moves are increasing in the currency market, in addition to the crude futures market. If this situation continues, it may be time to take decisive measures.”

AUDUSD

AUDUSD bounced around in a 0.6843-0.6875 range, with prices suffering from overall risk aversion due to the Middle East war and rising oil prices.

USDMXN

USDMXN is consolidating gains in a 18.0419-18.1628 range. Banxico’s interest rate cut to 6.75% last week and ongoing global risk aversion are underpinning prices.

China

USDCNY Fix: 6.9223 vs exp. 6.9205 (Prev. 6.9141)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.24% to 4,491.95.

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview