April 2, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3917, overnight range 1.3869-1.3933, close 1.3876
USDCAD erased yesterday’s gains and is trading with a bid into the long weekend. Risk sentiment soured following Trump’s promise to escalate his war on Iran by hitting them “very hard over the next 2-3 weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, (when Trump was a teenager) where they belong.” Trump’s hyperbole-laden, self-aggrandizing 18-minute address to the nation touted his achievements while ignoring the massive economic pain he inflicted on the rest of the world.
Trumps speech sparked renewed safe haven demand for US dollars, increased Treasury yields and drove global equity markets lower.
The subsequent surge in crude prices suggests that Commander Reid Wiseman, Pilot Victor Glover, Mission Specialists Christine Hammock and Jeremy Hansen may be paying a lot more to fill the tank for the trip back from the moon.
WTI surged from 98.90 to 107.82 on the news, exacerbated by Iran’s reply which included fresh missile and drone attacks on Israel, Iraq, and UAE. Trump did not say anything about getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
Canada’s trade deficit is expected to have widened sharply, to $5.74 billion (forecast $2.3b compared to the $-4.18 b deficit (revised from $3.65b) in January. The American Trade deficit widened to $57.3b from $54.7b.
US weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 202,000 (forecast 212,000) and which helps ease pressure on the Fed to cut rates because of cooling employment. Tomorrow, US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 80,000 but Trump’s hawkish speech about Iran suggests it will be ignored.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3870, with upside momentum consolidating near the high. The 4-hour RSI has rebounded back into the low 70s after briefly correcting, suggesting the pullback was shallow and more consolidation than liquidation. A break above 1.3950 targets 1.4000, while a move below 1.3870 opens the door to 1.3810.
The medium-term USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3810, where the 100-day (1.3813) and 200-day (1.3818) moving averages converge and continue to act as a firm pivot zone. However, the daily RSI near 74 indicates the market remains stretched, leaving rallies vulnerable to pauses or shallow corrections rather than a clean breakout.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3870 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3950 and 1.3990.
Todays range 1.3850-1.3950.
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
Easter Weekend
Many nations are on holiday today, celebrating Holy Thursday/Maundy Thursday, including the Scandinavian countries, as well as Portugal, Spain, and Mexico. They are getting a head start to the long Easter weekend. Tomorrow, financial markets in Canada, Europe, the UK, and the rest of the major centres are closed for Good Friday. In the US, the NYSE and Nasdaq are closed. Japan and China are open.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed with losses due to Trump. Japan’s Topix dropped 1.61%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX fell 1.06%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European markets are negative. The German DAX has dropped 2.40%, and the French CAC 40 is down 1.38%. The UK FTSE 100 is getting some benefit from BoE Governor Bailey’s dovish interest rate outlook and is only down 0.55%. S&P 500 futures have plunged 1.51%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.356%, the DXY is 100.12, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 4617.07.
EURUSD
EURUSD dropped from 1.1606 to 1.1513, where it sits in early NY trading, due to fears that Trump will escalate his war in Iran, which would prolong the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta warned that the changes in risk perception could increase pressure on government bonds. His ECB colleague said that it is far too early to determine if action is needed at the April ECB monetary policy meeting.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD traded negatively in a 1.3188-1.3320 band, and it is at its session low in NY. The spike in global risk aversion triggered the GBPUSD selloff, but it was remarks by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey that set up the plunge. Yesterday, he kiboshed near-term rate hikes, saying that the market was still “pricing us to raise rates,” “but I think they are getting ahead of themselves.”
USDJPY
USDJPY rallied in a 158.55-159.73 range on the heels of surging oil prices and the rise in US Treasury yields.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD suffered from the soured risk tone and dropped to 0.6864 from 0.694. Traders ignored the surge in Australia’s trade surplus from 2.25 billion to 5.68 billion.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded in a 17.7946-17.9579 range due to renewed risk aversion. Mexican markets are closed today and tomorrow.
China
USDCNY Fix: 6.8880 (Prev. 6.9025)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.04% to 4,478.91.
The PBoC pushed back against US dollar strength with an aggressive fix to help curb capital outflows.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
