April 7, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3920, overnight range 1.3906-1.3930, close 1.3912
USDCAD is trading sideways in an inspired range with prices tracking global risk sentiment and oil prices. USDCAD is essentially unchanged in the past week as high oil prices help offset broad-based US dollar demand.
WTI is trading with a slight bid in a 111.31-116.55 range and is in the middle of that band. If Trump delays his 8:00 pm ET deadline and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, WTI will drop to around 90.0/b while an attack that leads to delayed oil shipments will boost prices to 150.00. Flip a coin.
US Durable Goods Orders-ex transportation data rose 0.8% in February (forecast 0.3%), January 0.3%) but the results are overshadowed by the Iran war.
There are no Canadian economic reports today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3910 and looking for a break above 1.3950 to target 1.4000. A move below 1.3910 targets 1.3860.
The medium-term USDCAD outlook has shifted to neutral-bullish following the February low near 1.34 and a break above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (1.3768–1.3811), which are not strong support. Momentum remains positive but is slowing, with RSI near 65 and ATR declining, signalling consolidation. Resistance at 1.4000–1.4050 caps gains, while support at 1.3810 underpins the trend. Expect a 1.3850–1.4050 range with an upside bias unless 1.3810 breaks decisively.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3870 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3950 and 1.3990.
Todays range 1.3850-1.3950.
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
He’s Lost the Plot
@realDonaldTrump: 5:07 AM PT
“ A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”
Meanwhile, the US just announced they have attacked military targets on Kharg Island which comes on the heels of Israel bombing a railway.
Perhaps Trump is serious about the deadline he gave Iran (5:00 pm PT) tonight to accept his “deal” or face obliteration. A Pakistani reporter is claiming that negotiators are closing in on a “framework for a ceasefire.”
For FX traders, it’s a binary event. A deal means US dollar weakness as safe-haven trades get unwound, and no deal means further US dollar strength.
Taking Stock
Asian equities traders returned from a long weekend with a positive outlook. Australia’s ASX 200 rallied 1.74%, and Japan’s Topix rose 0.25%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.70%.
As of 5:30 am, European markets gave back earlier gains and are mixed. The French CAC 40 had climbed 0.77% earlier this morning and is now up 0.19%. The German Dax is down 0.48% and the UK FTSE 100 has lost 0.16%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.39%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.332%, the DXY is 99.93, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,663.04
EURUSD
EURUSD rose in a 1.1524–1.1576 range and is near the top of that band in NY trading. The single currency is getting a lift from improved risk sentiment due to hopes that a US/Iran ceasefire or peace deal gets announced. Sentix Investor Confidence fell to -19.2 from -0.31, and the March Eurozone Services PMI data hit a nine-month low (actual 50.7 vs 51.9 in February) due to Trump’s war. The intraday EURUSD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.1510 and looking for a break above 1.1580 to extend gains to 1.1630.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD tracked EURUSD gains and rose in a 1.3211–1.3285 range. UK Services PMI came in at 50.5, down from 51.2 in February. Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “Rising global economic uncertainty due to the war in the Middle East contributed to a further decline in business optimism across the UK service economy.”
USDJPY
USDJPY was choppy in a 159.47–159.93 range. The fear of BoJ intervention and the drift lower in US Treasury yields limited gains, while firm oil prices helped put a floor under losses.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded sideways in a 0.6898–0.6949 range after demand from improved risk sentiment clashed with weak economic data. The March PMI index dropped to 46.6 from 52.8, and the composite index fell to 47 from 52.4. Meanwhile, the TD Inflation gauge rose to 4.3% y/y from 3.6%, giving rise to stagflation talk.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded with a bearish bias in a 17.7077–17.8014 range, with improved risk sentiment weighing on prices.
China
USDCNY Fix: 6.8854 vs exp. 6.8773 (Prev. 6.8929
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 closed unchanged at 4,440.62
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
