April 10, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3836, overnight range 1.3813-1.3844, close 1.3816

USDCAD inched higher overnight but remained inside the 1.3806-1.3875 range that has contained price action since Trump changed his mind about destroying a civilization. US and Iran tensions remain high because Israel is apparently “off the leash” and continuing to attack Lebanon, against Trump’s wishes (at least publicly).  Nevertheless, long US dollar safe haven trades are being unwound ahead of the upcoming US/Iran peace talks in Pakistan.

WTI oil prices are drifting in a 97.59-100.40 range ahead of the peace talks.  Trump is insisting that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened. Seven vessels have the transit in the past 24 hours which suggests its open-but not open.

The Canadian Labour Force Survey reported that Canada added 14,100 jobs in March, compared to the 83,900 lost in February while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, The trading impact was minimal as the war in Iran and US inflation numbers will overshadowed it.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3870 and looking for a break below 1.3810 to target 1.3770. A move above 1.3875 opens the door to 1.3940. The RSI has is suggesting the downside momentum has faded and a consolidation phase is underway.

The medium-term USDCAD outlook is neutral following repeated failures ahead of the 1.4000 area and the recent pullback from the upper Bollinger Band. The downside is supported by the 100 and 200-day moving averages at 1.3817 and 1.3820. A decisive break below 1.3810 would put 1.3620 in play, while resistance in the 1.3900–1.4000 zone should cap rallies.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3810 and 1.3770. Resistance is at 1.3870 and 1.3910.
Todays range 1.3770-1.3870.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Making America Pay More

US inflation numbers showed CPI jumped to 3.3% y/y in March, as expected and sharply higher from the 2.4% in February, while core-CPI climbs to 2.6% y/y from 2.5%.  Trump’s fingerprints are all over the increase. Goldman Sachs estimated that tariffs added 0.5% to inflation in 2025. Fed Chair Powell said tariffs were responsible for the entirety of inflation gains above 2.0%. Trumps Iran war just exacerbated the situation.

Today, a US trade court is hearing arguments  on the legality of Trump’s 10% global tariffs which began February 24.

Ceasefire Still Holding

Global markets are trading cautiously but with a mildly positive risk tone, ahead of the weekend peace talks between Iran and the US, being held in Islamabad, Pakistan.  Trump said he is optimistic that a deal is in reach. Apparently, Iran is as well because now, they can charge tolls on ships using the Strait. That isn’t sitting well with Trump who is demanding the Strait be opened before talks.

Taking Stock

Asian equities finished the week with Australia’s ASX 200 closing 0.14% lower and Japan’s Topix finishing flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.55%.

As of 5:30 am PT, the French CAC 40 has risen 0.60%, the German Dax is up 0.74% and the UK FTSE 100 has gained 0.27%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.19%,  the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.289%, the DXY is 98.69 and gold is 4771.88.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded in a 1.1677-1.1713 range. The single currency slid steadily until NY started and rallied from the low to the top. German inflation numbers came in as expected with HICP rising 2.8% y/y in March. EURUSD is underpinned by expectations for the ECB to raise interest rates in June and September. EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1560 and looking to test resistance at 1.1640.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3411-1.3443 in part due to optimism around this weekends US and Iran peace talks and hopes the oil tankers start moving through the Strait of Hormuz. GBPUSD has strong resistance at 1.3490 which should limit gains in the near term.

USDJPY

USDJPY inched higher in a 158.95-159.38 range and is near the top as oil prices hovering around $100/barrel over shadowed rate hike risks. Producer prices rose 2.6% in March (forecast 2.4%, February 2.1%) and helped lift 5-year JGB yields to a record high.  The odds for a BoJ rate hike at the April 28 meeting are 60%.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD consolidated yesterdays gains in a 0.7054-0.7088 band. due to improved risk sentiment. Price action remained at the mercy of broad US dollar moves and sentiment around the pending US and Iran peace talks.

USDMXN

USDMXN is trading defensively in a 17.3445-17.4046 and closely tracking the prevailing US dollar sentiment. Optimism around the war in Iran ending is weighing on prices.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8654 vs exp. 6.8313 (Prev. 6.8649)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 4,636.56

March Producer Prices rise 0.5% y/y (forecast 0.4%, February -0.9%).

CPI rose 1.0% y/y in March (forecast 1.2%, previous 1.3%)

Xi Jinping tells s Cheng Li-wun, leader of Taiwan’s opposition party that “Taiwan independence is the chief culprit in undermining peace ​in the Taiwan Strait – we will absolutely not tolerate or condone it.”

Taiwan reports rise in naval activity in the Strait of Taiwan.  Perhaps Trump’s Iran foray emboldened Jinping.

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview