April 14, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3763, overnight range 1.3746-1.3794, close 1.3794
USDCAD retreated because of improved global risk sentiment. Traders are optimistic as the Iran and US ceasefire is still holding and because oil shipments are transiting the Strait of Hormuz once again.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has a majority government after three by-elections were won by Liberal candidates giving his party 174 seats.
WTI oil prices chopped around in a 95.25-98.00 range and are at 97.51 in NY. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand forecast rather dramatically. It now expects an 80,000 bpd drop in demand growth this year compared to its March report forecasting a rise of 640,000 bpd. Trumps war in the Middle East is to blame.
There are a host of Fed policymakers delivering remarks today.
US Producer Prices ex food and energy rose 3.8%y/y (forecast 4.2% y/y) in March which is unchanged from the downward revised 3.8%) in February.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3830 and looking for a break below 1.3740 to target 1.3710. A move above 1.3830 targets 1.3880.
The medium-term USDCAD outlook is neutral to bearish following repeated failures ahead of the 1.4000–1.4015 area and the recent rejection from the upper Bollinger Band (1.4015). USDCAD has broken below the 100 and 200-day moving averages at 1.3816–1.3820, which now act as resistance. Fibonacci support at 1.3746 (50%) are being tested, with a decisive break below targeting 1.3685. Resistance in the 1.3850-1.3880 should contain the topside.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3690. Resistance is at 1.3830 and 1.3960.
Todays range 1.3690-1.3790
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
Peace in Our Time
Neville Chamberlain, former UK Prime Minister, is long gone from this earth, but his words live on in the minds of equity traders. The Iran and US ceasefire has held for a week, and optimistic equity traders are buying stocks, the greenback is on the defensive, and oil prices have fallen.
Traders are reacting to reports of a second round of talks, which could begin Thursday and lead to a more lasting ceasefire. Furthermore, https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/ shows that 31 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, and 15 are transiting now.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed higher, led by a 0.87% rise in Japan’s Topix. Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.50%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.82%.
As of 5:35 am PT, European markets are higher. The German DAX is up 1.07%, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.79%, while the UK FTSE 100 is flat. S&P 500 futures have risen 0.30%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.298%, the DXY is 98.04, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,772.79.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose in a 1.1756-1.1807 range and is at the top of the band in early New York trading, thanks to a bout of positive risk sentiment as oil begins to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. ECB President Lagarde is slated to speak at the IMF meetings today at 5:00 pm. German wholesale prices rose 2.7% y/y (forecast 0.4%) in March.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rallied from 1.3500 to 1.3590 as the global “relief rally” took hold and long dollar positions were pared. Bank of England policymakers, Governor Andrew Bailey, Monetary Policy Committee members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene, are delivering remarks at the IMF meetings today.
USDJPY
USDJPY drifted lower in a 158.70-159.46 range due to falling oil prices and general dollar weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda used the Iran/US conflict as an excuse to downgrade the odds of a rate hike at the end of the month. He said, “Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East remain uncertain, and we will closely monitor them and their potential impact on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions.”
AUDUSD
AUDUSD extended yesterday’s gains, with prices rising in a 0.7077-0.7131 range because lower crude prices are improving global risk sentiment. News that China is accepting BHP iron ore shipments didn’t hurt. The National Australia Bank Business Conditions Index was unchanged at 6, while Business Confidence plunged to -29 from 0.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded in a 17.1985-17.3181 range and gave back all of yesterday’s gains. The rebound in risk appetite and favourable Mexican interest rates are weighing on the currency.
China
USDCNY Fix: 6.8593 vs exp. 6.8173 (Prev. 6.8657)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.19% to 4,701.28
Chian March Trade surplus shrinks to $51.13 billion (forecast $112.0 billion) from $90.98 billion in February.
Reuters reports that China has lifted bans on BHP iron ore imports.
China’s Defence Minister Dong reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration and US Navy emphasising Beijing’s intent to continue operating in the Strait of Hormuz and uphold its agreements with Iran.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
