May 8, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3647, overnight range 1.3646-1.3686, close 1.3665
USDCAD underperformed its G-10 peers even as oil prices inched higher. The move became more pronounced following the better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report and weaker than expected Canadian Labour Force Survey and USDCAD is attempting to decisively break above key resistance in the 1.3680 area.
Canada lost 17,700 jobs in April compared to the forecast for a gain of15,000 jobs (March 14,100). The unemployment rate jumped by 0.2% to 6.9%. Full time jobs fell by 47,000. It is a weak report and is another reason for the BoC to at least leave rates unchanged, if not cut.
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said Canada has a unique opportunity to develop and export its energy resources, but only if the country acts fast, something Canada is famous for not doing. Canada’s roughly $13 trillion of proven reserves could radically change the domestic economy for the better as the need for a trustworthy, reliable crude supplier has been underscored by Trump’s war. It won’t happen because a handful of climate activists think destroying Canada’s energy wealth will save the planet.
WTI oil is trading with a bit of a bid in a 93.86-98.02 range with traders awaiting Iran’s decision on Trump’s demands.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.3620, but the 4-hour RSI signal and MACD histogram are compressing, warning that upside momentum is fading. If resistance at 1.3670 contains the rally, a retest of support in the 1.3590 area is likely. A topside break targets 1.3720.
The medium-term downtrend is intact while the 1.3670-80 zone remains intact. A decisive breach negates the downtrend from the beginning of April and targets the 1.3750 area. → missing space before “If” If it holds, expect further range trading in the 1.3480-1.3680 area.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3620 and 1.3590. Resistance is at 1.3680 and 1.3710. Today’s range: 1.3600-1.3700
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
“It Was Just a Love Tap”
Trump described bombing some oil infrastructure on Iran’s Qeshm Island as “just a love tap.” Iran responded by “caressing” three US destroyers with missiles, which did not cause any damage. Trump declared that the ceasefire still holds despite both sides not ceasing firing.
Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. Only three ships made it through in the past 24 hours and they were the US navy vessels that were attacked.
Jobs vs Inflation
US nonfarm payrolls topped expectations and rose by115,000 (forecast 62,000 and 178,000 added in March) It’s a good number an provides further justification for the Fed to ignore the labour market and focus on inflation risks.
NY Fed President John Williams agrees. Yesterday he said the labour market has remained resilient despite a lot of economic uncertainty. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that inflation is too high. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said businesses are telling her that an inflationary mindset is starting to take hold.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indexes closed with losses. Japan’s Topix fell 0.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.87% and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 1.51%.
As of 5:45 am PT, the UK FTSE 100 is flat while the German DAX is down 0.83% and the French CAC 40 has lost 0.70%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.61%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.369%, the DXY is 97.90, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,725.91.
EURUSD | Range: 1.1723-1.1779
EURUSD is grinding higher partly because the EU and the US are still working through a trade agreement. Trump is demanding the EU cut their tariffs to zero (as agreed) or face sharply higher, but illegal tariffs. Many EU officials wonder what the value of any agreement with Trump is actually worth as they are not binding to Trump. German trade and Industrial production reports were weaker than expected but largely ignored.
GBPUSD | Range: 1.3548-1.3624
GBPUSD rebounded from yesterday’s lows due to the generally soft US dollar profile while ignoring UK political drama. A series of local election losses have some Labour supporters blaming the Prime Minister and demanding his resignation. The rest of the world doesn’t care.
USDJPY | Range: 156.52-156.99
USDJPY traded quietly ahead of today’s US data and next week’s visit by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Traders are convinced that discussions about the weak yen will be front and center which increases the risk of further BoJ FX intervention ahead of the trip.
AUDUSD | Range: 0.7200-0.7249
AUDUSD drifted higher due to general US dollar weakness on a modestly improved risk tone and higher commodity prices.
USDMXN | Range: 17.1992-17.3295
USDMXN rallied following Banxico’s well telegraphed rate cut yesterday then reversed the move overnight. The decision to lower Banxico’s benchmark rate to 6.5% from 6.75% was due to easing inflation and slowing economic growth. The move was not unanimous as two board members thought rates should be left unchanged.
China
USDCNY Fix: 6.8487 (previous 6.8562)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.48% to 4,900.51
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
