May 14, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3707, overnight range 1.3702-1.3728, close 1.3708
USDCAD is inching higher in a quiet market due to broad-based, but mild US dollar demand because of a more hawkish outlook for the Fed. Prices trickled higher in early NY trading as the greenback garnered a bit of support following today’s US economic reports.
US Retail Sales for April rose 0.5% m/m as expected but higher gas prices added 0.2% to the result. Weekly jobless claims rose to 211,000 from 199,000 but the 4-week average of 204,000 is considered very low.
The greenback continues to be underpinned by inflation data. The latest US CPI report showed prices rising a faster pace then expected and inflation pressures expanding beyond energy. PPI data confirmed the assessment and suggested additional price pressures were coming down the pipe.
The Bank of Canada’s summary of Deliberations did not offer any fresh insight into the Canadian interest rate outlook. Policy makers are in wait and see mode.
WTI oil traded in a 99.41-102.33 with traders distracted by the ongoing Trump/Xi Jinping meeting. A Chinese oil supertanker loaded with 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz unhindered as did a Japanese tanker.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3680, targeting a decisive break above 1.3730 to extend gains toward 1.3760. Failure to hold 1.3680 shifts attention back to 1.3640.
Longer term, last week’s move above 1.3640 snapped the downtrend from April 6. A move through 1.3720 targets the 1.3750-60 zone, which if broken puts 1.3850 in play. However there is resistance from the 200-day SMA at 1.3814. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is approaching overbought territory.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3680 and 1.3650. Resistance is at 1.3730 and 1.3780. Today’s range: 1.3680-1.3750.
FX Heat FX open high low 6:00 am
FX open high low 6:00 am
Welcome Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
It’s official — Kevin Warsh is now the Chair of the Federal Reserve. The fact that Trump picked him suggests to many that he is aligned with Trump’s interest rate outlook and he favours lower interest rates. Like Powell, he is a lawyer who specializes in economics. He is a very bright man who is very familiar with the inner workings of the Fed from his role as Fed governor from 2006-2011 before quitting over his opposition to quantitative easing.
Markets in Park
There is a lot of drama rippling through global markets from UK political uncertainty to Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing playing out against an energy crisis and no end in sight to the Iran war. All that is occurring against a backdrop of US data which includes Retail Sales and Business Inventories.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed mixed. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.12%, Japan’s Topix fell 1.03% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat.
As of 5:40 am PT, the German DAX is up 1.36%, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.84% and the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.37%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.36%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.441%, the DXY is 98.56, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,706.20
EURUSD | Range: 1.1697-1.1721
EURUSD traded quietly as traders remained sidelined awaiting clarity from the Trump/Xi Jinping summit, and ongoing concerns about prolonged oil supply disruptions and the prospect of higher US interest rates after two consecutive hotter-than-expected inflation reports.
GBPUSD | Range: 1.3496-1.3533
GBPUSD traded choppily in a narrow band. Questions surrounding Prime Minister Starmer’s prospects for lasting out the year are weighing on prices even as short-term technicals suggest GBPUSD is in an uptrend channel between 1.3480-1.3590. A slew of UK economic reports including Q1 GDP rising 1.1% (forecast 0.8%) and Manufacturing Production jumping to 1.2% in March from -0.2% m/m in February failed to move the needle. That’s probably because the data is pre-Iran war.
USDJPY | Range: 157.56-157.99
USDJPY trading was uninspired. Comments from BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu suggesting a rate hike should happen if the economy does not show signs of a downturn helped to cap the topside.
AUDUSD | Range: 0.7237-0.7265
AUDUSD bounced around but with a modest bid although gains were hampered due to recent US inflation data that supports the FOMC leaving rates unchanged or even raising them.
USDMXN | Range: 17.1612-17.2062
USDMXN is consolidating recent losses but remains in a downtrend that began at the end of March and remains intact while prices are below 17.4400. The US inflation data supports a somewhat hawkish Fed bias and that is underpinning prices.
China
- USDCNY Fix: 6.8401 vs exp. 6.7888 (prev. 6.8431)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.68% to 4,914.60
President Xi Jinping told Trump that any mishandling of Taiwan could lead to a” very dangerous situation.” Those are the words of a man not cowed by US military or economic might.
Nvidia surged to a $5.5 trillion market cap following a report that the company was cleared to sell H200 chips to China. However, Beijing has opposed it tech companies from ordering the hardware.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
