June 5, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3868, overnight range 1.3867-1.3912, close 1.3910
USDCAD is trading sideways but lower and showing no real weakness following the latest blow-out Canadian employment data.
The Canadian economy may have contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter, but the May employment report paints a far more resilient picture. Employers added 88,000 jobs, the strongest gain since late 2025, while full-time employment surged 154,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%.
The data suggest the GDP weakness was concentrated in specific sectors rather than signalling a broad economic downturn. While youth unemployment remains elevated and tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on manufacturing, the labour market is not behaving like one on the verge of recession. For the Bank of Canada, that reduces the urgency for near-term rate cuts.
WTI oil traded sideways in a 91.63-93.52 range, supported by Trump’s threat to bomb Iran while hopes for another delay limit gains.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bearish below 1.3910, with the 4-hour RSI having retreated sharply from overbought levels which suggests downside momentum. A sustained break below 1.3870 opens a test of the 1.3800-1.3820 area, while a recovery above 1.3880 is needed to stabilise the picture and retest the 1.3930 area.
The daily technicals remain bullish above 1.3830, supported by the 100- and 200-day moving averages at 1.3790 and 1.3805, respectively. The monthly chart shows a long-term uptrend channel which has guided prices higher since 2022.
USDCAD support is at 1.3870 and 1.3820. Resistance is at 1.3920 and 1.3950. Today’s range: 1.3820-1.3920.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
US Job Gains Explode Higher
Non-farm Payrolls soared by 172,000, trashing even the most optimistic expectations. Even more encouraging, average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year-over-year and previous months were revised higher by a combined 93,000 jobs.
The Federal Reserve can comfortably retire to a gold course for the summer, as the report supports a patient, hands-off approach. If anything, the report suggests the U.S. economy remains resilient enough to withstand restrictive monetary policy for longer than markets had anticipated.
The news boosted Treasury yields and the US dollar while weighing on S&P 500 futures.
Just Another Frazzled Friday
Tensions are running high again in the Middle East. Hezbollah rejected a truce with Israel calling it a “farce.” Israel stepped up attacks across Lebanon. Trump said that talks with Iran are going well, then said almost all of their leadership has been wiped out, so who is he talking to? Then the ultimatum. Iran must agree to US demands by the end of the week or face more “military strikes.”
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets closed in the red and finished mixed for the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.15%, Japan’s Topix was flat, and Australian ASX 200 dropped 0.70%.
As of 5:50 am PT, the German DAX gave up earlier gains and is now down 0.11%. The French CAC 40 pare its European gains but is still up 0.27% while the UK FTSE 100 has climbed 0.27%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.56%, the 10-year Treasury yield popped to 4.541% from 4.467%,pre-data. DXY jumped to 99.44, and gold (XAUUSD) added to losses and is 4,418.52
EURUSD | Range 1.1610-1.1645
EURUSD remained inside its well travelled range with traders awaiting US nonfarm payrolls numbers. Weaker than expected Eurozone Q1 GDP (actual -0.2% q/q in Q1, forecast 0.1%) suggested the economy was on the brink of a technical recession.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3416-1.3470
Sterling is surprisingly perky albeit inside the 1.3370-1.3510 band that has contained price action since May 19. GBPUSD got a boost from EURGBP after the weaker than expected Eurozone growth data. UK house prices dipped, falling -0.1% m/m in May, lower than expected but the same as in April.
USDJPY | Range 159.89-160.03
USDJPY remained within spitting distance of the BoJ intervention trigger area and the currency still has a bid. Traders may be emboldened by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about the pros and cons of a weak yen. That implies she isn’t overly bothered if the currency weakens further.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7106-0.7142
The Australian dollar bounced aimlessly although gains were curtailed by the lingering disappointment from this week’s soft GDP data. That makes it more difficult for the RBA to maintain its hawkish bias.
USDMXN | Range 17.2706-17.2909
USDMXN continues to trade defensively thanks to the 463.8 bp Mexico/US 10-year interest rate differential. However, hawkish noise from some Fed officials is limiting the downside.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8157 vs exp. 6.7735 (prev. 6.8203)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.79% to 4,816.92
Traders turned defensive overnight ahead of escalating Middle East tensions, the latest Beijing crackdowns on businesses and the upcoming US employment report.
The CSI 300 is under pressure ahead of the indexes semi annual review on June 12.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
