June 19, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.4141, overnight range 1.4129-1.4160, close 1.4140
USDCAD nudged higher overnight in thinner-than-usual trading due to holidays in Asia and today’s Juneteenth holiday in the US.
USDCAD gains continue to be driven by widening CaAD/US interest rate spreads in favour of the US dollar. The Bank of Canada does not have an inflation problem (by its metrics) but it has an economic growth problem.
April Retail Sales data rose 0.5% (forecast 0.6% m/m, March 0.9%), ex-autos rose just 0.1% (forecast 0.7%, March 1.2%) will not help growth sentiment. Furthermore, the uncertainty around the USMCA trade talks are another Canadian dollar negative.
Oil prices ticked higher due to the stalled US/Iran talks. WTI rose to 78.43 then dropped to and are trading at 76.54. India announced it spend about $1.6 billion to build and fill a new strategic petroleum reserve. Bloomberg reported that 40 oil tankers carrying 80 million barrels of crude are preparing to move through the Strait of Hormuz, or at least they were until the US/Iran talks stalled.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The technicals are bullish and setting the stage for an explosive move higher. The intraday chart is bullish following the decisive move above 1.4080. The 4-hour RSI has eased from extreme overbought levels while and MACD has turned higher.
Longer term, USDCAD is bullish above 1.3812, the daily 200-day moving average, with the ascending channel from the May low firmly intact and price now testing the 1.4150 area that capped the November and rallies earlier in the cycle. The daily MACD confirms the trend, holding above its signal with a rising histogram. The daily RSI is at extreme level, the most overbought reading of the entire run and warning that a corrective pullback is overdue.
The monthly chart puts the move in its full context, price is pressing the 1.4145 horizontal resistance that has held since 2020, with the next major barrier the 1.4703 cycle high. The multi-decade uptrend line off the 2012 low sits far below near 1.3465, so the larger structure remains constructive on a decisive break above 1.4160.
WARNING: USDCAD is climbing on borrowed time. The daily, the weekly, and the 4-hour RSI’s flashing extreme overbought at once, is a rare alignment that has historically preceded sharp corrections.
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.4080 and 1.4050. Resistance is at 1.4160 and 1.4205. Today’s expected range is 1.4110-1.4170.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Talks Delayed
The Iran-US ceasefire talks that were due to be held in Switzerland today have been delayed. No official reason has been given, but there is a lot of speculation that Iran views Israel’s continued bombardment of Lebanon as a violation of the terms. That was all that was needed to give the greenback a bit of a bid and bump Treasury yields higher.
US markets are closed for Juneteenth Day.
The cost of assassinating a world leader and bungling an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation is $80 billion according to Pete Hegseth, Trump’s Department of Defense Secretary. But that number is probably low, as Iran is supposedly on the receiving end of a $300 billion redevelopment fund. All of this money was spent to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open prior to the attack.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets closed lower, at least the ones that were open did. Japan’s Topix fell 0.57% and Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.83%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index was closed.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are trading negatively. The French CAC 40 is down 0.38%, the German DAX is down 0.13% and the UK FTSE 100 has dropped 0.34%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.41%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.481%, the DXY is 100.78, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,153.23.
EURUSD | Range 1.1418-1.1469
EURUSD continues to sink under the weight of sentiment expecting higher US interest rates. Most believe the FOMC decision was hawkish because of Chair Warsh’s commitment to achieving the 2.0% inflation target, although he didn’t say how it would be achieved. (a new inflation metric perhaps?) EURUSD is also being pressured by the stalled US and Iran talks and caution into the weekend, especially since US markets are closed today.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3163-1.3241
GBPUSD has bounced from its Asia low that occurred following the delay of the US and Iran ceasefire/nuclear talks. Prices were already on the defensive after the BoE decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% (two policymakers voted to hike) but sentiment improved this morning with the release of sharply better-than-expected May retail sales data (actual 3.2% y/y, forecast 1.9%, previous 0.1%).
USDJPY | Range 160.99-161.46
USDJPY rallied further as traders defied official threats of FX intervention. One school of thought is that the prospect of higher US rates is the precursor to a new US dollar strength cycle. If that’s the case, intervention would be futile. BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned that inflation may rise above 2.0% and the danger is that policymakers are too slow to react.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6990-0.7023
Aussie traded defensively but recouped its Asian losses in Europe. The currency suffered from the prevailing hawkish Fed view but is supported by a similar stance by the RBA.
USDMXN | Range 17.3366-17.4023
USDMXN tracked broad US dollar moves and recovered most of its overnight losses in late European trading. Traders are also watching US and Mexico trade talks with USTR confirming the third round of negotiations will happen in July.
CHINA
CLOSED FOR HOLIDAY
- PBoC Fix: 6.8130 vs exp. 6.7752 (prev. 6.8096)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.21% to 4,941.60
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
