October 10, 2025
USDCAD open 1.4019, overnight range 1.4013-1.4034, close, 1.4022
USDCAD blew its top yesterday and erupted to 1.4036, on a wave of stop-loss, USDCAD demand. A litany of woes drove USDCAD through the roof. They included the extremely poor outlook for economic growth, the lack of any sort of trade deal progress, broad US dollar demand against the majors and expectations for another weak Canadian employment report today.
However, a weak labour report didn’t happen. Instead, Canada gained 60,400 jobs and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. Public sector jobs accounted from 31,000 positions while the private sector gained 22,000. USDCAD dropped to 1.3976 on the news, but the losses are likely to be reversed as employment numbers are wonky and subject to huge revisions.
Fed policymakers were talking up a storm yesterday and Barr and Kashkari and Daly sounded in favour of further rate cuts. They are hoping to get additional insight from the September CPI report which may be released next week, despite the government shutdown.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to tick down to 54.2 from 55.1 last month.
Canadian markets are closed Monday for Thanksgiving while US markets shut for Columbus Day.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are mildly bullish and improving. USDCAD has broken and held above the 200-day moving average at 1.3975, confirming a near-term shift in momentum. However, with the RSI hovering above 80, the move looks stretched, suggesting a modest correction is possible. A sustained push above 1.4065 would extend the rally toward 1.4110, while a move below 1.3970 would expose 1.3920 and argue for more consolidation.
The medium-term technicals remain bullish. The pair is trading above both its 100- and 200-day moving averages. A decisive close above 1.4110 would confirm a breakout targeting 1.4275, while failure to clear that level risks keeping the pair confined to a broad 1.3760–1.4110 range. Overall, momentum favors the upside, but overbought conditions warn of a short-term pause before the next leg higher.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3970 and 1.3920. Resistance is at 1.4065 and 1.4110.
Today’s Range: 1.3970–1.4065.

No-Nobel Prize for Very Un-Noble Guy
The Nobel Peace Prize is Awarded to Venezuelan Maria Corina Machado
Boy, will Trump be fuming. He wanted that prize badly, so badly that during his UN address last month, he flat-out said he deserved it. But his heavy-handed lobbying, which reportedly included personal calls to Nobel Committee members, ostensibly about U.S. tariffs, may have backfired. Woe to Norway for the snub. Can you say higher tariffs?
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets booked some profits to close out the week. Japan’s Topix lost 1.85%, Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.13%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.73%.
As of 7:00 a.m. EDT, European bourses are hovering around flat. The French CAC-40 is unchanged, Germany’s DAX is down 0.17%, and the UK FTSE 100 has eased 0.10%. S&P 500 futures are flat. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 99.35, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is steady at 4.111%. Gold (XAUUSD) trades at 3996.78.
EURUSD
EURUSD traded narrowly between 1.1554 and 1.1590, managing a slight gain after a week of losses. The single currency remains pressured by political turmoil in France, though reports suggest President Macron could reappoint former Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Expectations for additional Fed rate cuts while the ECB stands pat may limit downside to the 1.1520 area.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is soft in a 1.3280–1.3315 band amid persistent anxiety about the November budget. A KPMG/REC report showed UK wage growth slowing to its weakest pace in four and a half years, reinforcing concerns about cooling labor momentum.
USDJPY
USDJPY consolidated this week’s gains inside a 152.39–153.27 range. The pair dipped in Asia after the ruling LDP’s coalition partner, Komeito, ended its 26-year alliance in protest over Sanae Takaichi’s election as party leader. Japan’s Finance Minister tried jawboning markets over “excessive” yen weakness, but traders shrugged it off. Japanese markets are closed Monday.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD steadied within 0.6545–0.6573 after earlier declines on broad U.S. dollar strength. The downside was cushioned by RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments expressing concern over sticky inflation, which supports the case for rates staying on hold.
USDMXN
USDMXN clung to Thursday’s gains, trading between 18.3721 and 18.4170. Softer-than-expected inflation reinforced expectations for further Banxico easing, while general U.S. dollar strength underpinned the pair.
USDCNY
PBoC fix: 7.1048 vs exp. 7.1329 (Prev. 7.1102)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.97% to 4616.83
China/US trade tensions are rising. China will charge port fees to all US flagged, US built, US owned vessels arriving in a Chinese port beginning October 14. The move is in retaliation for a similar move by the US.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics