June 29, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.4189, overnight range 1.4175-1.4208, close 1.4193
USDCAD flat-lined overnight, much the same as its performance on Friday and its direction continues to be dictated by the prevailing US dollar sentiment. At the moment, it is cautiously bid because of the hawkish outlook form the June FOMC meeting along side concerns around Canada US trade talks.
It is also month, quarter and half-year end which means portfolio rebalancing flows can make for erratic trading. The S&P 500 is down around 2.3% MTD, while it is up 11.8% QTD.
WTI oil traded in a 69.73-70.79 range with traders seemingly not bothered by the latest flare up of hostilities in Iran. Another Iran/US ceasefire has been declared after both sides traded missiles, and drone strikes on the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz has reopened.
The Canadian and US economic calendars do not have any top-tier data.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals have turned cautiously bearish after failing to sustain gains above 1.4200 and slipping away from the upper Bollinger Band. The 4-hour MACD has completed a bearish crossover, the histogram remains below zero, and the RSI has retreated to neutral, suggesting upside momentum has faded. A sustained break below 1.4150 would 1.4100. A move back above 1.4205 would negate the near-term bearish bias and shift focus to 1.1.4250.
Longer term, the broader uptrend off the May low remains intact, with price still holding inside the rising daily channel. The daily MACD continues to confirm the trend, and the daily RSI has only retreated from extreme overbought levels.
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.4150 and 1.4005. Resistance is at 1.4220 and 1.4250. Today’s expected range is 1.4140-1.4220.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
June is Biting the Dust
It’s another slow Monday start ahead of a busy week for top-tier data, central banker speak, and holidays. Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls numbers (forecast 114,000) tick the box for data. The ECB Conference in Sintra, starting today and featuring Lagarde, Warsh and Macklem ticks the central banker speak box while Canada Day on Wednesday and US Independence Day (Friday) holidays close markets.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. A ruling favourable to Trump will open up another can of worms about Fed independence.
Tariff Man Returns
Trump is threatening 100% tariffs on all countries that impose a digital tax aimed at European companies. The threat occurred less than 24 hours after the Council of the European Union officially finalized a EU-US trade agreement, proving once again, under the Trump administration, a deal with America is worthless.
Taking Stock
Asian equities rebounded and closed with gains, led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rising 1.57%. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.68% and Japan’s Topix gained 0.47%.
As of 8:00 AM EDT, European equity indexes are flat to negative. The French CAC 40 is down 0.23%, while the German DAX and the UK FTSE 100 index are flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.85%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.373%, the DXY is 101.20, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,044.60..
EURUSD | Range 1.1381-1.1415
EURUSD drifted higher on news of another Iran/US ceasefire, but gains were limited due to Trump’s latest tariff threat and caution ahead of the ECB’s Sintra conference. EURUSD remains in an intraday downtrend below 1.1450 which is supported by expectations of Fed rate hikes. Eurozone economic confidence ticked higher in June rising to 95.0 from 93.7. The news had little impact on FX.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3191-1.3235
GBPUSD traded sideways in a quiet session. GBPUSD traders are awaiting news of the recently anointed “Prime Minister-to-be Prime Minister, Andy Burnham’s major policy speech.
USDJPY | Range 161.72-161.90
USDJPY continued to trade with a bid with prices underpinned by the massive US and Japan interest rate differential which is exacerbated by the latest hawkish FOMC outcome. The flare-up of Iran-US hostilities on the weekend didn’t help. The threat of joint US/BoJ intervention above 162.00 is limiting gains, for now.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6881-0.6905
Aussie traded quietly but defensively as it consolidated last week’s losses. Prices are weighed down by monetary policy divergence between the RBA (patient) and Fed (hawkish) and bearish technicals below 0.7000.
USDMXN | Range 17.4697-17.5516
USDMXN rallied on broad-based US dollar demand due to renewed hostilities in Iran on the weekend but has pulled back from the peak in early NY trading. The fall-out from the recent FOMC meeting and Banxico’s cautiously neutral stance combined with pending USMCA trade talks are underpinning the currency.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8175 vs exp. 6.8041 (prev. 6.8166)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.21% to 4,926.92
PBoC introduces overnight repo at 1.25%
Ministry of Commerce places 20 Japanese companies on export control list due to ties to Japanese military.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
