October 14, 2025
USDCAD open Tuesday: 1.4069, overnight range 1.4030-1.4070, Monday close, 1.4040
Monday: 1.4005, overnight range 1.3983-1.4042. Friday close, 1.4007
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnicks claim that all cars should be built in America (and one supported by Trump) is a threat to the domestic economy and there isn’t much Canada can do about it.
WTI oil got slammed by the spike in US/China trade tensions and prices dropped from 62.87 on Friday to 57.69 in NY
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish supported by the break above key resistance in the 1.4020-1.4030 area with a break above 1.4120 setting the stage for further gains to 1.4280. A move below 1.4020 targets support in the 1.3970-90 area. However, momentum indicators suggest prices will consolidate before the rally renews.
The medium-term technicals rare full-blown bullish with the decisive moves above the 200 day moving average and a rising ADX.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4020 and 1.3990. Resistance is at 1.4090 and 1.4120.
Today’s Range: 1.4020-1.4120
China/US Trade Tensions
Global markets went on a wild ride over the Thanksgiving holiday and the fall-out continues to reverberate today. It started Friday, with Trump being so annoyed at not winning the Nobel Prize that he slapped another 100% tariff on China. He had a rethink on the weekend after realizing his tweet knocked off about $2 trillion of value from U.S. stocks. Sunday he tweeted “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took to Fox News to soothe the troubled waters and said the supposedly cancelled Trump/Xi meeting at the Asian Pacific Summit in Seoul was back on.
Monday was a partial holiday in America. Government workers celebrated Columbus Day, although that holiday may be getting a name change following reports Mr. Columbus was detained, then deported by ICE for being an illegal immigrant for close to 533 years.
Stock traders on Wall Street did not get Monday off and they recovered about half of Friday’s losses.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets were leery of the supposed China-U.S. trade tension “thaw” and closed mixed. Japan’s Topix lost 1.99% after being closed Monday, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.19%, and the Hang Seng was closed.
As of 5:30 a.m. PDT, European bourses are in negative territory. The French CAC-40 is down 1.03%, the German DAX has lost 1.28%, and the U.K. FTSE 100 has fallen 0.42%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.88%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 99.36. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is soft at 4.027% while gold (XAUUSD) trades at 4110.94 after reaching 4179.71 overnight
It’s the start of the quarterly earnings season in America. JPMorgan Chase reported at 12% surge in profits to $14.39 billion for Q3, Goldman Sachs post record Q3 earnings of $15.18 billion.
EURUSD
EURUSD traded erratically in a 1.1543-1.1630 range since Friday’s close. The single currency is struggling to rebound ahead of new (and previous) French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s budget proposal tomorrow and the no-confidence vote expected on Thursday. German ZEW data was soft but overshadowed by the U.S./China tiff. The EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.1680 with a break below 1.1530 targeting 1.1380.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is at the bottom of its 1.3253-1.3352 range. It managed to hang on to Friday’s gains and traded in a 1.3314-1.3370 range yesterday until today’s U.K. employment report. It was weak, and GBPUSD dropped to the session low. The jobless rate climbed to 4.8% in June-August. GBPUSD also suffered from broad U.S. dollar demand due to rising risk aversion from the China/U.S. trade spat.
USDJPY
USDJPY continued to trade choppily in a 151.63-152.61 range with prices hitting the bottom in Europe due to safe-haven demand for yen. USDJPY has clawed back some losses into the U.S. open on Japanese political concerns and lowered odds for a BoJ rate hike.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded with a negative bias, falling from 0.6573 on Friday to 0.6441 in New York today. Renewed U.S./China trade tensions are weighing on the currency pair.
USDMXN
USDMXN rode a rollercoaster between Friday and today. Prices spiked to 18.6344 on Friday after Trump’s 100% tariff on China threat, then dropped to 18.4196 Monday (when Mexican markets were closed for Columbus Day) before rising to 18.6279 in New York. Safe-haven demand for dollars and renewed global trade tensions have fueled the moves.
USDCNY
PBoC fix: October 14: 7.1021 vs exp. 7.1353 (Prev. 7.1007)
October 13: 7.1007 vs exp. 7.1210 (Prev. 7.1048)
October 14, Shanghai Shenzhen: CSI 300 fell 1.20% to 4539.09
China trade tensions with US increase. Beijing put 5 US based subsidiaries of SK shipping company Hanwha Ocean, including Philly Shipyard on countermeasures list for cooperating with America by putting curbs on China’s maritime sector.
China began charging port fees for US ships
China and US trade official continued “working-level” talks on Monday
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
