October 20, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.4032, overnight range 1.4006-1.4050 close, 1.4021
And with inflation in mind, traders will get a taste of US top tier data on Friday with the release of September CPI. Apparently, the BLS is calling back furloughed employees to crunch the numbers.
WTI oil prices bounced in a 56/58-57.44 range and are near the bottom of that band in early NY. The hopes for a China /US trade deal and concern about a pending oil glut are competing for dominance with the oil glut fears having the upper hand today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals have mildly bearish bias while trading below 1.4050 and looking for a move below 1.4000 to extend losses to 1.3970. A topside break targets 1.4080.
The medium-term technicals are bullish above 1.3990 and looking to break above 1.4080 to extend gains to 1.4120 then 1.4140.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4010 and 1.3970. Resistance is at 1.4070 and 1.4110.
Today’s Range: 1.4010-1.4070.
War and Trade
President Trump is expecting a China US/ trade deal. In his words, they are getting along with China, and 100% tariffs are not sustainable. He said that America’s top issues with Beijing are rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans. Treasury Secretary Bessent said they would be holding talks in Malaysia.
Better than expected Chinese GDP data helped offset negative sentiment after S&P Global ratings downgraded France sovereign debt.
Traders are looking ahead to Friday when US CPI data may get released. At least, today that is the plan.
Taking Stock
Asian equity traders liked the improved tone to China/US trade talks and the Japanese political news and bought stocks. Japan’s Topix soared by 2.46%, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.41%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng reversed Friday’s losses, posting a 2.42% gain.
As of 7:00 AM EDT, European indexes are higher. Germany’s DAX index has gained 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.37%, and the French CAC-40 is flat. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.16%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 98.56. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.017%, while gold (XAUUSD) is 4256.41.
EURUSD
EURUSD consolidated Friday’s losses in a 1.1652-1.1672 range. On Friday, S&P Global Ratings downgraded French sovereign debt to A+ from AA-, due to the country’s fiscal issues. Eurozone data (current account and construction output) was a non-factor for traders. The intraday technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.1640.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD drifted in a 1.3405-1.3443 range, with traders content to bide their time until Wednesday’s release of CPI, PPI, and retail prices. GBPUSD remains rangebound in a 1.3330-1.3530 band.
USDJPY
USDJPY bounced in a 150.20-151.20 range due to US/China trade developments and Japanese politics. Sanae Takaichi will become Japan’s next Prime Minister, and she is said to favour fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy. Trump’s relatively positive tone on China trade and the outlook for lower US rates helped to cap gains.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6489-0.6515 range, deriving a bit of support from the Chinese GDP data and US/China trade talks.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded defensively in a18.3625-18.4127 range on improved risk sentiment from China/US trade developments and the prospect of Fed rate cuts.
China
PBoC fix: 7.0973 vs exp. 7.1318 (Prev. 7.0949)
Shanghai Shenzhen: CSI 300 rose 0.53% to 4538.22
PBoC leaves 1 and 5 year interest rates unchanged
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) 1.1% (forecast 0.8%, previous 1.1%)
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) 4.8% (forecast 5.0%, (previous 5.2%
Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 6.5% (forecast 5.0%, previous 5.2%)
Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 3.0% (forecast 2.9%, previous 3.4%)
Senior Chinese official are meeting today through Thursday for the 4th plenum of the Central Committee today, to formulate a new 5 year plan.
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
