October 23, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.3996, overnight range 1.3987-1.4005, close, 1.3998
Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a speech last night where he outlined his budget plans on the heels of a Desjardins Group forecast of a looming deficit of $70 billion. Mr. Carney announced big plans to transition from reliance on the US into a diversified autonomous economy. He just didn’t include any concrete details on how he would achieve his objectives.
WTI oil prices soared from 56.40 on Tuesday to 61.88 overnight and are trading at 61.70 in NY. The catalyst was the US announcement of sanctions on major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. The EU responded with another Russian sanction package (its 19th).
Canada Retail Sales, ex-autos rose 0.7% % in August (July -1.1%) but had not impact on trading.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish after uptrend line support in the 1.3970-80 are was tested and it held. A break below support targets 1.3960 then 1.3920 while a move above 1.4030 suggests a rally to 1.4110.
The medium-term technicals are bullish supported by the uptrend line since July and are looking for further gains to 1.4120 while prices are above 1.3920.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3970 and 1.3920. Resistance is at 1.4020 and 1.4060
Today’s Range: 1.3960-1.4030.
Russia and US Tensions Escalate
The US slapped sanctions on Russian oil companies for what the Treasury Department said was a result of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine. Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.”
The latest sanctions mean India’s imports of Russian crude will likely fall to zero.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indexes closed with Australia’s ASX 200 ending the day nearly unchanged, Japan’s Topix falling by 0.39%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 0.72%.
As of 7:00 AM, European indexes are mostly higher. The French CAC-40 has gained 0.41%, the U.K. FTSE 100 is up 0.57%, and Germany’s DAX is down 0.21%. S&P 500 futures are flat, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.11. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 3.992%, and gold (XAUUSD) trades at 4116.51.
EURUSD
EURUSD is little changed from yesterday as it drifts in a 1.1583–1.1615 range. Traders may have been distracted by the escalating U.S. and Russia tensions that led to the Americans sanctioning two major Russian oil companies. Putin responded by flaunting his nuclear arsenal.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading choppily in a 1.3329–1.3360 range with a slight bid as it tries to recoup yesterday’s post-inflation data losses. The weaker-than-expected results have raised the odds that the BoE will cut rates at its November meeting, but the tabling of the Autumn Budget on November 24 suggests otherwise. GBPUSD technicals are bearish below 1.3370.
USDJPY
USDJPY extended gains, rising from 151.83 to 152.67 due to ongoing concerns that the new Takaichi government will boost spending and push back against rate hikes. Analysts expect that the BoJ will hike by 0.25% to 0.75% in December or January.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD rallied from 0.6479 to 0.6513, where it trades in early NY, supported by hopes that the U.S. and Chinese trade talks in Malaysia this weekend bear fruit. Further upside is hampered by rising odds for an RBA rate cut on November 4 and by caution ahead of the U.S. release of the September inflation report tomorrow.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded in an 18.4141–18.4537 range and is near the low in early NY. The recent bout of U.S. dollar weakness has weighed on the currency pair, while Mexican/U.S. interest rate differentials (which favour Mexico) have helped to limit losses. Mexican October inflation cooled, rising just 0.18% compared to 0.22% previously. Mexico’s trade minister Marcelo Ebrard said that U.S./Mexico trade talks are about “90% done.”
China
7.0918 vs exp. 7.1205 (Prev. 7.0954)
Shanghai Shenzhen: CSI 300 rose 0.30% to 4606.35
China confirms trade talks with US will take place in Malaysia this weekend. The news helped to calm fears of escalating sanctions.
Xi Jinping continues his purge of top military leaders. He announced the expulsion of nine senior generals or admirals today. “No Coup for You!”
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
