November 4, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.4058, overnight range 1.4054-1.4083, close, 1.4057
Its a big day in Canada. Today is the day that Mark Carney tells Canadians how deeper in debt they will become as his government doubles the budget deficit. As usual, the budget document will be full of hyperbole about creating jobs and supporting the middle class while remaining fixated on a misguided climate change agenda. Carney warned that his vision of Canada means “sacrifices for Canadians” which is government speak for “you will pay even more and get even less.”
WTI oil prices traded sideways in a 51.96-62.02 with selling pressure stemming from a risk off mood. Reuters reported that Opec’s decision to pause production hikes in Q1 2026 was at the request of Russia, who were hamstrung by sanctions.
Canada Trade numbers are on tap,
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish after the break above resistance at 1.40160 and are looking for a move above 1.4110 to extend gains to 1.4170. A move below 1.4020 targets 1.3960.
The medium-term technicals are bullish with a series of higher lows since July. A decisive break above 1.4100 confirms a floor at 1.4000 and suggests further gains to 1.4400.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4040 and 1.4010. Resistance is at 1.4110 and 1.4150.
Today’s Range: 1.4020-1.4120
Risk Aversion Rears its Head
The US dollar found its mojo and the US dollar index is trading at 100.10 after a bout of “risk-aversion” US dollar demand. Traders were spooked after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs warned of a 10-15% market correction within the next 24 months.
The Trump administration is nervous ahead of today’s tariff case at the US Supreme Court. Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would be at the court, calling the case a “matter of national security.” He is also talking about using other laws to keep tariffs flowing if the tariffs are deemed to be illegal.
The US government shutdown has tied the record for the longest in history, which was previously set by—no surprise—a Trump administration. Low-income Americans relying on food stamps may go hungry, but no Senator or Representative misses a paycheck.
New York City is looking for a new mayor. The front-runner is a 34-year-old socialist, and New Yorkers are voting today.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indexes closed with losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.79%, Japan’s TOPIX lost 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.91%.
As of 8:30 am, the German DAX is down 1.17%, the French CAC-40 index has lost 1.02%, and the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.41%. S&P 500 futures are down 1.08% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 100.07. The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.097%, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 3978.36.
EURUSD
EURUSD is at its session low in a 1.1477-1.1534 range due to the hawkish shift by the Fed which contrasts with the ECB’s neutral bias and the latest bout of risk aversion. The US tariff case at the Supreme Court and talk of the need for an equity market correction are weighing on prices. The French political situation is another uncertainty for EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD traded poorly in a 1.3053-1.3146 range due to UK budget angst and broad-based US dollar demand. Chancellor Reeves’s latest comments were seen by traders as confirmation that she plans to hike income taxes and possibly the VAT.
USDJPY
USDJPY traded lower in a 153.32-154.48 range with pressure stemming from global risk aversion leading to demand for safe-haven yen. Ongoing complaints by Japanese officials about the “one-sided” yen moves also stoked BoJ intervention fears.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded lower in a 0.6491-0.6541 range because of risk-aversion-fueled US dollar demand. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.60% but has a hawkish bias. It raised its inflation forecasts, and the governor said “less easing might be needed.”
USDMXN
USDMXN rallied from 18.4799 to 18.6514 due to US dollar demand from risk aversion. Resistance in the 18.6600 area capped gains so far, but if broken, the target is 18.7400.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0885 vs forecast 7.1226 (Prev. 7.0867)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.75% to 4618.70
FX High, Low, Open (As of 5:07 am PT
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
