November 7, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4118, overnight range 1.4059-1.4126, close, 1.4119

USDCAD remained well supported heading into the weekend until the Labour Force Survey was released. USDCAD dropped from 1.4116 to 1.4059 on the news.

Canada added a surprising 66,600 job’s in October, easily beating the forecast for a decline of 2,500 which was expected, and more importantly all the gains were in full-time private sector. The data suggests that Trump’s tariffs are not having much of an impact on jobs other than in steel, aluminum and auto sectors.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected to dip to 53.2 from 53.6.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.4090 and looking to retest the peak of 1.4140, although USDCAD remains overbought. A move below 1.4080 could extend losses to 1.4050.

The medium-term technicals are bullish. The USDCAD uptrend channel from July is intact with the base at 1.3890 and the top at 1.4180. The momentum indicators are still overbought but have eased from its peak.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4080 and 1.4050. Resistance is at 1.4140 and 1.4170.
Today’s Range: 1.4060-1.4140.

The Rich Get Richer

And the poor go hungry. The US government is balking at paying $8 billion this month to feed around 40 million SNAP recipients, but Tesla investors eagerly agreed to award Elon Musk, already the richest guy on the planet, with and 8 year deal worth about $1.0 trillion.

The US government is balking at paying $8 billion this month to feed around 40 million SNAP recipients, but Tesla investors eagerly agreed to award Elon Musk, already the richest guy on the planet, with an eight-year deal worth about $1.0 trillion.

The FOMC Gets Chirpy

There were not shortages of FOMC officials expounding their views yesterday. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he wanted to speed up the pace to neutral rates buy using 50 bp rate cuts. Governor Michael Barr disputed that saying there was more work to do on inflation while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it was not obvious that the Fed should cut rates which needed to stay modestly restrictive to lower inflation.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed lower led by a 0.92% drop in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng.  Japan’s TOPIX fell 0.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.66%.

As of 7:10 am, the German DAX has lost 0.91%, the French CAC-40 is down 0.62% and the FTSE 100 index is lower by 0.74%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.17%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.65. The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.097%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4001.65.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded with a bit of a bid in a 1.1530-1.1557 range, with prices underpinned by the softer tone of the US dollar. The EURUSD rally is just a correction while below 1.1630, the downtrend from September. German exports rose 1.4% m/m in September, while imports climbed 3.1%.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded defensively in a 1.3095-1.3142 range overnight. Prices climbed steadily after the Bank of England left rates unchanged yesterday, but the rally stalled at intraday resistance in the 1.3150 area. Analysts are looking for a 25 bp rate cut next month. The Halifax House Price Index rose 1.9% y/y in the three months ending in October (forecast 1.45%).

USDJPY

USDJPY bounced erratically in a 152.82-153.54 range, with traders looking for direction following this week’s peak of 154.50. Yen demand from talk of a pending stimulus package by the government was offset by downgraded odds for a Bank of Japan rate cut. Weak household spending data (actual 1.8% y/y vs. forecast 2.5%) didn’t help sentiment.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD consolidated yesterday’s losses in a 0.6468-0.6492 range, with gains slowed by weak Chinese trade data and a bit of risk aversion from the AI-led stock sell-off.

USDMXN

USDMXN is at the bottom of its 18.5303-18.5928 overnight band. Banxico lived up to its advance billing and trimmed its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 7.25%. The decision was not unanimous, as Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath wanted to leave rates unchanged.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0836 vs. exp. 7.1131 (prev. 7.0865)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.31% to 4678.79.

China’s exports plunged, falling from 8.3% in September to 1.1% in October as the impact from front-loading to beat tariffs faded. Imports rose just 1.0% y/y compared to 7.4% in September, pointing to weak demand from Chinese consumers.

China and the US paused port fees for one year, beginning today. The USTR said it would negotiate with China over Section 301 trade complaints.

Reuters reports: China begins work on easing rare earth export rules, and the US may block Nvidia’s sale of second-tier AI chips to China.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics