November 10, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4019, overnight range 1.4001-1.4058, close, 1.4042

USDCAD is under pressure following better-than-expected Chinese data and news that the 40-day (so far) US government shutdown may end this week. Canada gained another 66,600 new jobs in October, according to Friday’s Labour Force Survey (LFS). It looks good, but only if you think adding 85,100 part-time jobs is the path to closing the output gap and achieving economic prosperity.

USDCAD direction continues to be dictated by US dollar sentiment, and that sentiment turned bearish on US political developments and weaker-than-expected US economic data, which increased the odds for a December 10 Fed rate cut.

WTI oil traded lower in a 59.75-60.48 range, with the ongoing fear of an oil glut weighing on prices. Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted an increase of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand only increases by 700,000 bpd.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are modestly bearish while trading below 1.4030 and looking for a move below 1.4000 to test support in the 1.3950 area. A break above 1.4030 targets 1.4070, then 1.4090, and suggests a 1.4000-1.4100 consolidation phase.

The medium-term technicals suggest a brief period of 1.3950-1.4100 consolidation supported by the series of higher lows as oversold conditions ease. A break below the 200-day moving average at 1.3938 would target the 100-day moving average at 1.3830.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4000 and 1.3960. Resistance is at 1.4040 and 1.4070.
Today’s Range: 1.3990-1.4060.

US Government reopening by the end of the week?

Global risk sentiment improved following news that the US Senate voted to advance the government plan to reopen the government, after eight Democrats voted with the Republicans. It still needs another vote before being sent to the House of Representatives to approve. Then it goes to Trump, which adds up to a lot of days before the US government reopens.

Friday’s weak Michigan Consumer Sentiment data hit a 3.5-year low, which is evidence that Americans are not enamoured by Trump’s economic stewardship.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets rallied with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 1.55%, Japan’s TOPIX rising 0.56%, and Australia’s ASX 200 climbing 0.76%.

As of 5:30 am PT, the German DAX has soared by 1.78%, the French CAC-40 has rallied by 1.39%, and the FTSE 100 index and S&P 500 futures are up 0.88% and 0.92%, respectively. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.49, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.127%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4104.40, for a gain of $100.00 since Friday’s close.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded in a 1.1542-1.1583 range with the low seen in Asia and the peak in early European trading. The single currency is trading at 1.1563 in NY as traders digest the latest US government shutdown news and weaker-than-expected Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence numbers (actual -7.4, forecast -3.9, previous -5.4). The EURUSD downtrend from September remains intact while prices are below 1.1620.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD dipped, rallied, then dipped again, in a 1.3136-1.3184 range due to the broadly weaker US dollar on improved risk sentiment and a modestly bullish technical outlook. Thursday’s rally above 1.3070 snapped a week-long downtrend, and prices are looking to test the September 17 downtrend line at 1.3310. UK employment data is due tomorrow.

USDJPY

USDJPY opened with a bid and rallied from 153.46 to 154.25, and it is sitting at 154.19 in NY. Analysts downgrading their forecasts for BoJ rate hikes this year and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus budget plans have combined to boost USDJPY. JPMorgan Chase raised its year-end forecast to 156.00.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD rallied in a 0.6490-0.6540 range due to improved global risk sentiment and somewhat hawkish comments by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. Mr. Hauser spoke of “policy challenges” that suggest tight monetary policy is needed to control inflation. The better-than-expected Chinese data added to the optimism.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded lower in an 18.3686-18.4693 range, with prices weighed down by broad-based US dollar weakness from hopes for a timely end to the US government shutdown. Prices remained on the defensive after Banxico signaled a slower pace of rate cuts going forward.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0836 vs. exp. 7.1131 (prev. 7.0865)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.31% to 4678.79.

Chinese October CPI rose 0.2% m/m (forecast 0.0%, September 0.1%) and 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.0% y/y, Sept. -0.3% y/y).

October PPI index -2.1% y/y (forecast -2.2% y/y, September -2.3% y/y).

Beijing’s Commerce Ministry announced a two-year suspension of the 2024 restrictions on U.S. exports of some rare earth exports while also putting a temporary halt to special port charges for American ships.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics