November 28, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4051, overnight range 1.4025-1.4045, close 1.4029

USDCAD traded sideways in a quiet overnight session ahead of today’s Q3 GDP data then dropped to 1.3992 from 1.4016, post data.

Canada’s economy expanded by 2.6% y/y in Q3, compared dropping 1.8% y/y in Q2, but the devil is in the details and the details are nasty.  Imports plunged 2.2% while exports inched higher. Everything happening inside the country told a different story. Households trimmed spending, mostly because vehicle sales slumped.  Business investment was lifeless, with cuts to machinery, equipment, and non-residential buildings offsetting a small pick-up in housing activity that came entirely from a busy resale market.

Energy prices once again carried the load, lifting export earnings and improving the terms of trade.

“Climate-Change Carney” has adopted a new persona, that of “Fossil Fuel Mark.” The Prime Minister and Alberta agreed to a new energy deal-actually a memorandum of understanding, that if delivers, means a huge boost to Canada’s energy industry and by default, the economy. The plan is for another pipeline to the West Cost, cancelling a planned emissions cap and an adjustment to the current tanker ban.  The drawback is that no company has stepped up to say the y will build the pipeline and even if they did, construction would not start before 2029,

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.4020 and looking for a break above 1.4060 to extend gains to 1.4110. A failure to extend beyond 1.4060 suggests a retest of support at 1.4020..

The medium-term technicals are bullish above the July uptrend line which comes into play at 1.3930, a level guarded by support at 1.3970. Gains are capped by a double-top at 1.4140, leaving USDCAD rangebound in a 1.3970-1.4140 band.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4010 and 1.3980. Resistance is at 1.4060 and 1.4110.
Today’s Range: 1.3980-1.4080

Losing its Cool

Global markets were thrown into disarray overnight and the issue has not been corrected as of 5:30 am. CME Gorup, the biggest exchange operator in the world halted trading on its around 9:40 pm. The following notice appears on the CME website.

The good thing is that the outage occurred on one of the quieter trading days of the year with most of America still celebrating Thanksgiving. The NYSE and NASDAQ close at 1:00 pm and the bond market at 2:00 pm.

It’s also month end so portfolio rebalancing trades will be executed in a thinner than usual market.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets finished mixed on the day and, with the exception of Japan’s Topix which rose 1.2% in November, were down on the month. The Topix finished yesterday’s session with a 0.29% gain, Australia’s ASX closed flat, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng lost 0.34%.

As of 5:45 am PT,the German Dax and French CAC-40 indexes are up 0.23% while the UK FTSE100 is up 0.13%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.67, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.00%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4175.35.

EURUSD

EURUSD dropped from 1.1602 to 1.1559 in quiet trading. A slew of Eurozone economic data which included mixed German Retail Sales numbers and unemployment data failed to provide support. German retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in October but rose 0.9% y/y, while unemployment fell by 25,700. Traders are also awaiting developments on Putin’s Ukraine peace plan.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is near the bottom of its 1.3202-1.3245 range with traders continuing to digest the implications of Wednesday’s UK budget. The short-term GBPUSD technicals are bearish with the downtrend from September 22 intact while prices are below 1.3310.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded sideways in a 156.10-156.58 range. The constant threat of FX intervention combined with renewed speculation about a December or January BoJ rate hike and the dovish outlook for US interest rates are weighing down prices. However, concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus plans are limiting the downside. Japan unloaded a ton of data, most of which met expectations.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD drifted lower in a 0.6521-0.6542 range in a quiet session. Traders remained sidelined and are looking ahead to PMI and inflation data on Monday.

USDMXN

USDMXN consolidated this week’s losses in an 18.3369-18.3818 range. Traders are expecting the currency pair to continue to trade lower due to expectations for a renewed Fed monetary policy easing program.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0789 vs exp. 7.0769 (Prev. 7.0779)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.25% to 4526.66.

French President Macron travels to China with a plan to turn Europe into a respected major partner of Chine and not as a variable in tension, according to SCMP.

China is concerned that it has too many robotics companies duplicating each other and vows to strengthen guidance.

China has launched a 19-point plan to better align the supply of consumer goods with demand.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics