Agility Forex Daily

December 5, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.3946, overnight range 1.3888-1.3961, close 1.3959

USDCAD traded sideways at the open then dropped through sup[port at 1.3940 and 1.3920 to test additional support in the 1.3880-90 zone. The sell-off followed the Labour Force Survey which showed Canada gained another 53,600 jobs on top of the 66,600 gained in October.

However, all the gains have been due to increases in part-time jobs. Stats Canada wrote” members, others do so involuntarily. Involuntary part-time work exists when individuals work part-time because of economic or business conditions, or because they could not find full-time work. In November, 17.9% of people  working part-time did so involuntarily.

This employment report is hardly an excuse to buy Canadian dollars.

US Trade Representative Jameson Greer suggested that the US would withdraw from the USMCA trade deal and that is the leverage Trump is using in talks with Mexico and Canada.

The Canadian government plans to issue Stellantis a notice of default around the $220 million in grants issue to the auto company.  Stellantis disagrees.   The company said they are not in default but just on an “operational pause,” in reference to the Brampton plant which has been “re-tooling” for nearly two years.

WTI oil is trading quietly in a 59.43-59.79 band with prices underpinned by the lack of progress in the Russia ceasefire talks. The NP’s Terry Glavin makes a great point about the US involvement in the Russia Ukraine “peace talks.” Trump doesn’t care about saving lives-he just wants to recoup what he claims is $500 million  in US spending on Ukraine.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3990 thanks to a series of lower highs recently, and are  looking to break below 1.3920 area to test 200 day moving average support at 1.3900 and additional support at 1.3880 The RSI continues to flash oversold, leaving USDCAD vulnerable to a rebound.

The medium-term technicals are bearish and looking for a move below the 1.3880 to  target 1.3840 then 1.3770.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3870 and 1.3840.. Resistance is at 1.3940 and 1.3990.
Todays Range 1.3880-1.3950

Slumbering into the Weekend

FX markets are rather quiet. Today’s US PCE index, which pre-government shutdown was a top-tier data point, is so stale today it is meaningless. The results will have zero impact on FOMC deliberations, as a rate cut next week is preordained. NEC Director and the man reportedly tapped to succeed Powell claimed that real wage growth rose higher than inflation and that the Fed should cut rates.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected at 52 compared to 51 last month.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets ended mixed after BoJ rate hike chatter helped to drive the Topix down 1.09%. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.19% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.58%.

As of 7:05 am, European markets are modestly higher. The German DAX is up 0.61%, the French CAC-40 has gained 0.33%, the FTSE 100 is up 0.09%, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.20%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.00, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.112%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4,225.18.

EURUSD

EURUSD dipsy-doodled in a 1.1641–1.1672 range and is at the bottom in early NY. Traders remained focused on the outlook for US rates and ignored higher-than-expected Eurozone Q3 GDP (actual 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% previously) and a 0.2% rise in employment.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded uneventfully in a 1.3321–1.3363 band. The pound may be getting some support after BoA suggested GBPUSD would rise to 1.45 in 2026 due to broad US dollar weakness. Halifax house price data showed prices were flat in November compared to the forecast for a 0.4% rise.

USDJPY

USDJPY dropped then popped in a 154.35–155.22 range. The gains are mainly due to profit-taking after rate hike chatter knocked USDJPY to the overnight low. Japan’s trade minister confirmed that Japanese companies have launched lawsuits in America to get tariff refunds, considering they were levied illegally.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is rangebound in a 0.6607–0.6637 range. Broad-based bearish US dollar sentiment on elevated Fed rate cut expectations is underpinning prices.

USDMXN

USDMXN added to yesterday’s losses in an 18.2046–18.2418 range. Prices are probing support in the 18.2000 area, which is an 18-month low. President Sheinbaum is in Washington for the FIFA meeting and hopes to talk trade with Trump.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0749 vs exp. 7.0745 (Prev. 7.0733)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.84% to 4584.54

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics