December 8, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.3825, overnight range 1.3804-1.3836, close 1.3818

USDCAD plunged Friday following the stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data. Canada gained 53,600 new jobs in November on top of the 66,000 gain in October. Economists proclaimed the results ensured that the BoC will leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, with many suggesting that the next rate move will be a rate hike.

But all of the job gains were part-time. Canada is rushing to become a nation of baristas, cashiers, and gig workers in an effort to serve a shrinking middle class. The Canadian economy is barely treading water. The BoC’s MPR on October 29 noted that Canada has experienced a decade of falling productivity and shrinking investment. That was a negative when the report was released, and after only 40 days, it is unlikely that anything changed. Furthermore, Trump is not bothering to negotiate a trade deal with Canada. Yesterday he asked, “Why, Canada makes a lot of things we don’t need because we make them also.”

That is hardly a recipe for a stronger Canadian dollar or even higher interest rates. Arguably, the USDCAD sell-off was exacerbated by poor end-of-year liquidity.

WTI oil traded in a 59.38–60.31 range. Prices have been up and down depending on whether the focus is on Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure or the state of the Trump-led Ukraine–Russia peace talks. Meanwhile, China’s imports rose to a 27-month high of 12.38 million bpd.

There are no Canadian or U.S. economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are full-bore bearish following the decisive break below support in the 1.3920 then in the 1.3860 zone. Both those levels will revert to resistance. However, the steep drop has momentum indicators extremely oversold which suggests a corrective bounce before more losses.  A break below 1.3810 suggests further losses to  1.3770, then 1.3720.

The medium-term technicals are bearish. The decisive moves below the 100 and 200-day moving averages following the failure to take out resistance in the 1.4070 zone have confirmed the bearish bias and target further losses to 1.3720. Only a rebound above 1.3900 would negate the downside pressure.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3790 and 1.3760. Resistance is at 1.3860 and 1.3890.
Todays Range 1.3790-1.3860

China Exports Rebound

China’s exports rebounded in November even as the U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer says that China is complying with the latest bilateral agreement between the nations. Soybean diplomacy at work. He said China has bought about one-third of its soybean purchase commitment. So now, Americans get to pay more for Chinese goods while other countries benefit from rising Chinese imports.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed with Japan’s Topix rising 0.65% while Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.18%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.23%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European markets are mostly flat. The German DAX is up 0.35%, while  the French CAC-40  and FTSE 100 are flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.21%, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 98.93, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.15%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4202.17

EURUSD

EURUSD drifted in a 1.1638–1.1672 range with better-than-expected German October industrial production (actual 1.8%, forecast -0.4%, September 1.1%) having little impact. ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel gave the single currency a bit of support when she said: “Both markets and survey participants expect that the next rate move is going to be a hike, albeit not anytime soon. I’m rather comfortable with those expectations.”

GBPUSD

GBPUSD bounced in a 1.3314–1.3346 range and is trading at the session low in NY as traders await fresh catalysts. Traders are content to await the FOMC decision with the BoE meeting on December 18.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded erratically in a 154.90–155.55 range. Stronger wages (actual 2.6% m/m vs forecast 2.1% and previous 2.1%) boosted odds for a BoJ policy rate hike this month. However, a deeper-than-expected contraction in Q3 GDP (actual -0.6% q/q, forecast -0.5%, previous -0.4%) limited the USDJPY downside.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD extended Friday’s gains in a 0.6631–0.6650 band ahead of tomorrow’s RBA monetary policy decision. A hawkish “no-change” is the expected outcome, which contrasts with the 25 bp rate cut anticipated in the U.S.

USDMXN

USDMXN  consolidated Friday’s losses in a 18.1577-18.2145 range and a break below 18.00 targets 1.1500. Broad-based US dollar weakness on expectations for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday are weighing on prices. Ongoing positive carry from Mexico/US interest rate differentials continues to weigh on USDMXN.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0764 vs exp. 7.0747 (Prev. 7.0749)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.81% to 4621.75

November Exports rose 5.9% y/y (forecast 3.8%, October 1.1%), Imports fore 1.9% (forecast 2.8%, October 1.0%)  Trader surplus widened to $111.648 billion (forecast $100.2 b, and previous $90.07 b)

China launched aggressive carrier strike force drills  on the edge of Japanese territory in an overt threat to Japan for its support of Taiwan. Japan summoned China Ambassador to complain.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics