December 12, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.3759, overnight range 1.3754-1.3782, close 1.3772
The Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma said he listened to his constituents who voted Conservative (50.65%) and they really wanted him to be a Liberal. That’s why he joined Mark Carney’s party. I’m sure there were no promised pay-offs, cabinet posts or any other perks offered to entice him to move as that would be unethical and who ever heard of an unethical politician?
Canada Building Permits, Capacity Utilization and Wholesale Sales data are ahead.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged-They are bearish below 1.3830 (previous support) which is guarding the downtrend line from November 25 at 1.3880. A decisive break below 1.3760 targets 1.3720, but the RSI is in oversold territory. Only a break above 1.3880 negates the downside pressure
The medium-term technicals are bearish supported by the move through the multi-week uptrend channel, and the drop through the major support zone in the 1.3950-80 area. The outlook remains bearish while the 100 day and 200 day moving averages at 1.3909 and 1.3902 cap gains.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3720. Resistance is at 1.3790 and 1.3830
Todays Range 1.3740-1.3820
Landman, White House Style
Who knew Donald Trump was a fan of Paramount’s Landman series. That’s the one about roughnecks and billionaires seeking crude oil in the Permian Basin of Texas.
The show gave him an idea: Why spend the time, effort, and expense searching for oil when the US military could just take Venezuela’s.
He started small. He sent heavily armed special forces operators to hijack Venezuelan oil tankers on the high seas. Then he decided tankers are beneath him; he wants the entire country.
The average American has mixed feelings about the action. On one hand, Trump’s actions are disrupting the flow of drugs that so many Americans crave, but on the other hand, if Trump is attacking South Americans, he is not going after them.
Down to the Wire
The Fed is done, the key data is stale, and the holidays are near. Traders are busy closing, or getting close to closing, their books on 2025 and heading to the sidelines. The Ukraine-Russian peace plan is based on giving Russia everything it asks for while Trump, whose word is his placeholder, offers up vague security promises.
Expectations for further Fed easing drove the S&P 500 and the TSX to another record close. Today, global equity indexes and gold prices are higher while the greenback is softer.
Taking Stock
In Asia, Japan’s Topix soared by 1.98%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.75%, and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 1.22%.
As of 5:30 am PT, the UK FTSE 100 is flat, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.35%, and the German DAX is up 0.10%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.08%, the US Dollar Index is 98.42, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.181%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4341.23.
EURUSD
EURUSD traded in a 1.1719–1.1747 range and is trading at its session low in NY, mainly due to pre-weekend profit-taking. German November inflation numbers were as expected and a non-event. Traders have turned their attention to next Thursday’s ECB meeting, which may end with a hawkish bias and put a floor under EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading with a modestly bearish bias in a 1.3365–1.3400 range after a disappointing GDP report. The UK economy shrank 0.1% in the three months to October. Analysts noted that contractions in services and construction indicated broad-based weakness. The news all but guaranteed a BoE rate cut next week. GBPUSD gains may also be limited by EURGBP demand, as the ECB will adopt a hawkish bias while Deutsche Bank predicts that the BoE may be forced to cut rates twice more in 2026.
USDJPY
USDJPY recouped yesterday’s losses in a 155.45–156.13 range. Additional gains are facing headwinds from expectations that the BoJ will raise rates next week and indicate further hikes are in the pipeline.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD consolidated yesterday’s gains in a 0.6660–0.6678 range. Prices are supported by broad US dollar weakness and speculation that the RBA’s next move is a rate hike.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded negatively in an 18.0004–18.0581 range but ticked up close to the top in early NY trading. The USDMXN technicals are bearish, with prices in a well-defined downtrend. A break below 18.000 targets 17.6500
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0638 vs exp. 7.0843 (Prev. 7.0686)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.63% to 4580.96
China developer Vanke is showing fresh signs of stress. A State-owned shareholder Shenzhen Metro is demanding collateral for loans including an existing $2.6 billion one.
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
