December 15, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.3775, overnight range 1.3758-1.3777, close 1.3774

USDCAD is trading sideways in a narrow range and today’s Canadian inflation data did nothing to change it. The consumer price index was tame rising just 2.2%, unchanged from October and lower than the 2.4% expected.  Manufacturing Sales fell 1.0%, a tad better than the 1.1% expected.

 Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s US employment data. Fed Chair Powell managed to increase the importance of the twin October and November NFP reports last week when he said “we think that there is an overstatement in these numbers.”  Apparently Fed staffers estimate that the economy has been shedding about 60,000 jobs each month.

WTI oil traded lower in a 56.89-57.62 range. Prices are getting a bit of support from speculation that Trump’s  hijacking of Venezuelan oil is serving to ease concerns over an oil glut. The EU is having a rethink about emissions and is talking about backtracking on  its plan to ban gasoline engine passenger cars by 2035.  The European elite are unhappy about grocery shopping or going to the office in horse drawn buggies.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3830 (previous support) which is and looking for a test of support at 1.3720. A move above 1.3830, then 1.3880 is required to negate the downside pressure.  

The medium-term technicals are unchanged.  They are  bearish supported by the move through the multi-week uptrend channel, and the drop through the major support zone in the 1.3950-80 area. The outlook remains negative while the 100 day moving averages at 1.3909 and the 200 day moving average at 1.3895  cap gains.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3720. Resistance is at 1.3790 and 1.3830
Todays Range 1.3720-1.3820

Dodgy Data Dump Tomorrow

The US dollar is trading defensively against the major G-10 currencies in a cautious session ahead of tomorrow’s US data dump. The headline release is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, but the data is questionable. It is a combination of both the October and November data due to the government shutdown and data collection issues, and any reaction to the news should be short-lived. The FOMC already cut rates because the employment market was weakening.

Central Bankers Gather

A slew of monetary policy decisions are slated this week. On Thursday, the Bank of England gets the ball rolling with a widely expected 25 bp rate cut to 3.75%. The ECB follows, and President Lagarde will explain why policymakers decided to let it ride, leaving rates unchanged. The BoJ will deliver its long-awaited rate increase, which will lift its benchmark rate to 0.75%. Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank monetary policy decisions are also due.

Taking Stock

In Asia, Japan’s Topix climbed 0.22%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.72% due to the weak close on Wall Street and soft data from China.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are trading higher.  The UK FTSE 100 has risen 0.95%, the French CAC 40 is 1.09% higher, and the German DAX is up 0.32%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.49%, the US Dollar Index is 98.24, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.163%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4340.80.

EURUSD

EURUSD is at the top of its 1.1727-1.1760 range in quiet trading due to a lack of news today and Tuesday’s US employment numbers. The single currency saw a little support from stronger-than-expected industrial production numbers. IP rose 0.8% in October, compared to 0.2% m/m in September.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD rose in a 1.3355-1.3394 range ahead of an anticipated 25 bp rate cut to 3.75%. GBPUSD could rally on the news if CFTC data is to be believed. ING analysts point out that sterling shorts are at their highest level in around 10 years, and a positive surprise could spark a nasty short squeeze.

USDJPY

USDJPY dropped to 154.94 from 155.99 after the Tankan data lifted the probability that the BoJ hikes rates this week to 92%. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been dropping hints for such a move, saying he is watching wage negotiations.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded sideways in a 0.6639-0.6656 band but continued to get modest support from broad-based US dollar selling pressure ahead of Tuesday’s US data. Gains were also hampered by soft Chinese data.

USDMXN

USDMXN is hovering just above its session low of 17.9698 after sliding from 18.0378. US dollar weakness and speculation of further Fed rate cuts have offset any concerns about the expected 25 bp Banxico rate cut on Thursday. The mix of US dollar weakness and attractive yield differentials, in favour of Mexico, are weighing on prices.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0656 vs exp. 7.0569 (Prev. 7.0638

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.63% to 4552.06

November Retail Sales rose 1.3% (forecast 2.9%, October 2.9%), Industrial Production rose 4.8% (forecast 5.0%, October 4.9%) and House Prices dropped by 2.4%.

Falling sales of EV’s is weighing on Retail Sales.

China developer Vanke failed on attempt to get bondholders to agree for a one year extension.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics