December 16, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.3777, overnight range 1.3751-1.3782, close 1.3768
USDCAD is adrift ahead of today’s US employment reports and a 1:00 pm speech by BoC Governor Tiff Mackelm, titled ” Good money and your central bank.” It is the market reaction to today’s US data that will drive USDCAD and those moves may be exaggerated due to seasonal liquidity issues. The initial post-NFP reaction was to sell USDCAD, prices slid from 1.3751 to 1.3740, on the back of employment data that argues for another Fed rate cut.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3790 and looking to move below 1.3740 for a test of support at 1.3720. However,, intraday momentum indicators show USDCAD as very oversold. A move above 1.3790 targets 1.3840.
The medium-term technicals are unchanged. They are bearish supported by the move through the multi-week uptrend channel, and the drop through the major support zone in the 1.3950-80 area. The outlook remains negative while the 100 day moving averages at 1.3909 and the 200 day moving average at 1.3895 cap gains.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3720. Resistance is at 1.3790 and 1.3830
Todays Range 1.3720-1.3820
Nonfarm payrolls on tap
The US gained 64,000 jobs in November, but apparently lost 105,000 jobs in October. October retails were flat (actual 0%, forecast 0.1%, September 0.1%)
So what does this mean for FX? It shouldn’t mean much as the report is meh, the data dodgy and the Fed has already made its decision. .
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets closed sharply lower ahead of today’s US data and softer tech stocks. Japan’s Topix lost 1.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.42%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are in the red. The UK FTSE 100 is down 0.51%, the French CAC 40 is flat and the German DAX has fallen 0.35%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.12%, the US Dollar Index is 98.06, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.165%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4308.31
EURUSD
EURUSD traded in a 1.1745–1.1764 range and maintained an intraday bullish bias above 1.1730. Prices popped to 1.1795, post-NFP. EURUSD got a bit of support after Eurozone data showed that business activity had a full year of growth since the pandemic, according to S&P Global. Prices are also underpinned by rising hopes for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. The US is reportedly promising security guarantees, which under Trump are less than meaningless.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD motored higher, rising from 1.3356 to 1.3426, then rising to 1.3456, post NFP. The bottom was seen following the UK employment report which ING analysts suggested that boosted the odds for a BoE rate cut on Thursday. GBPUSD rallied when December PMI data was released, as Composite, Manufacturing, and Services data topped expectations. GBPUSD technicals are bullish above 1.3330 and targeting 1.3500.
USDJPY
USDJPY traded sideways in a 154.69–155.30 range then dropped to 154.40 after the US jobs number. Traders are awaiting Friday’s BoJ rate decision, when a hike of 25 bps is expected. Japan PMI data was mixed. Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.7 from 48.7, but Services PMI slipped to 52.5 from 53.2.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD drifted higher in a 0.6618–0.6662. Australian PMI numbers were mixed, but Consumer Confidence took a hit (actual -9.0 in December vs 12.8% in November). Prices continue to be underpinned by last week’s hawkish RBA bias due to comments about upside risks to inflation.
USDMXN
USDMXN is at the bottom of its 17.9323–18.0202 range due to broad-based US dollar weakness and downgraded US-Mexico tensions after a water dispute was resolved. Banxico is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0602 vs exp. 7.0444 (Prev. 7.0656)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.20% to 4497.56
Beijing reportedly discussing a 4.5%-5.0% GDP target for 2026
China slashes tariffs on EU pork to between 4.9%-19.8% from 15.6%-62.4% for the next 5 years.
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
