December 17, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.3783, overnight range 1.3753-1.3796, close 1.3755
USDCAD reversed its post-NFP losses and climbed steadily after the jobs data failed to confirm the need for the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders were positioned for such an outcome, but the inconclusive and incomplete data forced them to reverse those trades.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller is reportedly being interviewed by Trump to be the next Fed Chair today. He is also delivering remarks at Columbia University in NYC today. NY Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic are also speaking.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals flipped to bullish with the failure to test and break below support at 1.3720 and the subsequent rally above 1.3770. A decisive break above 1.3810 suggests further upside to 1.3880 while a failure keeps the 1.3720-1.3810 range intact.
The medium-term technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.3880-1.3920 which is guarded by the 100 and 200 day moving averages. The RSI indicates that prices are no longer oversold.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3720. Resistance is at 1.3810 and 1.3850
Todays Range 1.3740-1.3820
Greenback stages a rally
The US dollar slide halted abruptly yesterday when the hotly anticipated October and November nonfarm payrolls data was released. Instead of confirming a rapidly weakening employment situation, it dumped a mess of incomplete, somewhat corrupted numbers tabulated by a lower number of returned surveys. The results did nothing to change the views of those wanting more rate cuts and those wanting rates to remain unchanged.
The US dollar opened higher across the board today against a backdrop of Trump-designed tensions. The might of the United States military is turned on Venezuela, whose armed forces are stone-age villagers compared to America’s. Trump is also promising new sanctions against Russia if Putin rejects the latest peace deal.
A Reuters Ipsos poll shows Trump’s approval rating sliding fast, and it is far worse than his nemesis Barack Obama and every other president since Ronald Reagan. He is on par with dementia-suffering Joe Biden.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets closed on a mixed note. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.92%, Japan’s Topix was flat, and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.16%.
As of 5:30 am PT, the UK FTSE 100 is sharply higher, rising 1.60% following UK inflation numbers. The French CAC 40 has lost 0.32%, and the German DAX has fallen 0.11%. S&P 500 futures are 0.21% higher, the US Dollar Index is 98.48, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.168%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4333.08
EURUSD
EURUSD traded choppily and with a negative bias in a 1.1704-1.1753 range and is in the middle of that band in early NY trading. The single currency fell after the US jobs data and then added to the losses following another soft German Ifo Survey. Business Climate dipped to 87.6 in December from 88.1 in November. The survey noted that German companies were more pessimistic about the first half of 2026.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is reeling, falling from 1.3427 to 1.3312 after a surprisingly soft inflation report pretty much guaranteed a 25 bp BoE rate cut tomorrow. Headline CPI fell 0.2% m/m (forecast flat), while core CPI rose 3.2% y/y compared to 3.4% in November. Even so, as long as GBPUSD is above 1.3290, the retreat is merely a correction.
USDJPY
USDJPY rallied in a 154.52-155.64 range after the US NFP data muddied the Fed rate cut outlook and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said Japan needed to strengthen capacity through “strategic deployment of fiscal stimulus.” The BoJ is expected to hike rates on Friday.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded lower in a 0.6612-0.6636 range due to broad US dollar strength after Fed rate cut bets were reset. However, prices are getting a bit of support as analysts begin pencilling in an RBA rate hike in February.
USDMXN
USDMXN is consolidating recent losses in a 17.9572-17.9968 range, with prices continuing to be weighed down by Mex/US interest rate differentials. Banxico is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 7.0% tomorrow and is expected to suggest further rate cuts are not guaranteed.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0573 vs exp. 7.0386 (Prev. 7.0602)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.83% to 4579.88
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
