December 18, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.3779, overnight range 1.3764-1.3789, close 1.3787

USDCAD was largely ignored in a snooze-fest of an overnight session where traders were sidelined ahead of policy decisions from the Bank of England and ECB today. FX trading has already entered full-holiday mode and parties and vacations are the focus.

NY Fed President John Williams was upbeat on the US economy, predicting a return to “solid growth and price stability.” Fed Governor Christopher Waller repeated that Fed policy was still in restrictive territory and that rates would be lowered. Nothing new from either of these gentlemen.

WTI oil prices see-sawed in a 55.74-56.85 range with support from speculation of new sanctions on Russia crude and Trump’s blockade of Venezuela offset by predictions of an oil glut now and into 2026.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals  are bullish while prices are above 1.3740 but remain locked in a 1.3730-1.3830 trading band. The gains are supported after prices snapped the two-week downtrend line with break above 1.3780, although follow-through gains are lacking.

The medium-term technicals are unchanged. They are bearish while prices are below 1.3880-1.3920 which is guarded by the 100 and 200 day moving averages. The RSI indicates that prices are no longer oversold.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3720. Resistance is at 1.3810 and 1.3850
Todays Range 1.3740-1.3820

Trump’s Prime Time Speech Recap

Blame Biden: 

Your grocery bill is through the roof, Your job went missing, that’s the proof.
Just blame Joe, Blame Biden,  Prices high, wallet’s cryin’, If you’re worried, blame Biden. Interest rates and rent too steep, now you are unable to sleep. Just blame Joe, Blame Biden.  And it went on for another 17 minutes.

No Drama from US Data

Weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and the Consumer Price Index numbers are all on tap this morning. They failed to spark much activity when the as the FOMC decision has come, and traders are just marking time until they can shut down for the Christmas holidays.

November CPI  rose 2.7% rather than the expected 3.1%, although the data is shaky considering it is the first inflation report since September. The US government shutdown and data collection issues are likely to have skewed the results, suggesting today’s numbers can be justifiably ignored. The FOMC focus is on employment, and since weekly jobless claims  were 224,000 (forecast 225,000 vs 236,000 last week), they won’t be worried.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed around flat. Japan’s Topix fell 0.37% ahead of the BoJ meeting tomorrow, while Australia’s ASX 200 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were flat.

As of 5:40 am PT, the UK FTSE 100 is -0.2%. The French CAC 40 has gained 0.30% and the German DAX is up  0.46%, while S&P 500 futures are 0.71% higher. The US Dollar Index is 98.35, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.114%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4339.25

EURUSD

EURUSD stagnated in a 1.1717–1.1750 range, with traders sidelined by the ECB monetary policy decision this morning. No one expects a change in interest rates, so the focus is on forecast changes. Some analysts expect that the forecast for CPI in 2026 will be downgraded from 1.7%.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded defensively in a 1.3341–1.3382 range ahead of the Bank of England rate decision today. Prices jumped to 1.3394 from 1.3354 after the BoE announced a 25 bp rate cut to 3.75%. It was a 5–4 decision, with four members wanting rates left unchanged.

USDJPY

USDJPY is at the top of its 155.48–155.98 range on general US dollar strength. The BoJ is expected to announce a rate hike to 0.75% tomorrow. Policymakers still have to contend with a weaker-than-expected economy, with Q3 GDP rising just 0.6% q/q, and a rate hike may exacerbate the issue.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD bounced from its session low in a 0.6593–0.6613 range thanks to Consumer Inflation Expectations data rising 0.2% to 4.7% from 4.5% in November. The news wasn’t a surprise, as the Australian government raised its inflation outlook on Wednesday.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded quietly in a 17.9855–18.0262 range, with traders content to await the Banxico decision today, when a 25 bp rate cut is already priced in.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0583 vs exp. 7.0403 (Prev. 7.0573)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.59% to 4552.79

China leaders will be unimpressed after the US approved a $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan.  That may be why officials announced support for Venezeula although that support was merely in the form of hot-air.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics