January 13, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3883, overnight range 1.3866-1.3888, close 1.3880 

USDCAD drifted sideways in an uneventful session then dropped to 1.3866 in the aftermath of the US inflation numbers. Prices remains well supported above 1.3840. Traders continue to be spooked by the US seizure of Venezuelan oil assets and Trump’s willingness to use American military might to expand US territory.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to China later this week in hopes of rebuilding trade relations that were destroyed by his predecessor. Finding new markets for Canadian oil is probably a good thing, unless it raises the ire of Trump.

WTI oil prices rose from 59.47 to 60.83 on the heels of Trump’s latest tariff salvo. Trump said he will sap 25% tariffs on all countries that trade with Iran.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are cautiously bullish while prices hold above 1.3840 and looking for a move above 1.3900 to extend gains to 1.3940. A move below 1.3840 puts 1.3800 in play,

The medium-term outlook is bullish after the November downtrend line was decisively broken, shifting the bias back toward consolidation-to-higher. Prices remain supported above 1.3780, a level that now marks the lower boundary of the post-December recovery zone. The broader uptrend will require confirmation via a sustained break and close above the 100-day moving average at 1.3905, which would place the 1.40–1.4065 resistance band back into focus.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3840 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3920 and 1.3960.
Todays Range 1.3850-1.3920

Trade with Iran? More Tariffs for You!

Trump announced 25% tariffs on all Iran’s trading partners. That announcement could put a damper on China’s purchases of Iranian crude unless Beijing ignores it and kicks off another round of the US/China trade war.

Inflation Spotlight

The US dollar retreated in the wake of the slightly weaker-than expected Core December CPI. (actual 2.6% y/y, forecast, 2.7%, November 2.6%). The initial FX moves are not likely to be sustainable as questions continue to linger about the data quality due to the fallout from the 40-day US government shutdown.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed sharply higher, led by a 2.41% gain in Japan’s Topix thanks to talk of a snap election in Japan. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.90% while Australia’s ASX 200 climbed by 0.56%.

As of 7:00 am, European bourses are trading negatively, led by a 0.55% decline in the French CAC. The German DAX is down 0.17% while the UK FTSE 100 is flat. S&P 500 futures are down 0.16%, the US Dollar Index is 98.95, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.20%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4586.17.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded quietly in a 1.1654–1.1675 range as the drama from the Trump administration’s attack on Fed independence begins to fade. The intraday EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.1700 and looking for a test of support at 1.1600.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded sideways in a 1.3462–1.3486 range, with traders content to await this morning’s US inflation numbers and a slew of American economic reports tomorrow. Traders are also biding their time until Thursday’s release of UK November GDP data.

USDJPY

USDJPY soared, rising from 157.90 to 159.05 before slipping to 158.88 in NY due to increased speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to call a “snap” election. Her plan is to dissolve parliament on January 23 to set up a February election. Traders are betting that if she wins more seats, she will be better able to drive her expansionary fiscal policies. Traders ignored comments by Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama that both she and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent share the same concerns about the “one-sided” depreciation of the yen.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded with a modest negative bias in a 0.6698–0.6717 range following weaker-than-expected economic data. The Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 92.9 in January from 94.5 in December, and all the sub-indexes were below 100.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded with a slight bearish bias in a 17.9010–17.9325 range, with prices weighed down by broad-based US dollar selling pressure following Trump’s latest attack on Fed independence. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she rejected Trump’s offer to send troops to take on the drug cartels.China

PBoC Fix: 7.0103 vs exp. 6.9734 (Prev. 6.9849)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.61% to 4761.03

Trump’s 25% tariff threat to countries trading with Iran weighed on mainland stocks.

Deutsche Bank analysts expect CNY to strengthen this year due to increasing yuan internationalism, reduced over-capacity and from government efforts to boost consumption.

China is planning to step up efforts to use its vast coal reserves to produce plastics and synthetic rubber. In recent years, China has approved 36 coal plants, 20 of which are already operating.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics