September 25, 2025

USDCAD open 1.3893, overnight range 1.3885-1.3910, close, 1.3897

USDCAD is well-bid, consolidating the gains chalked up since Monday. A string of soft domestic data highlights Canada’s economic fragility which is set to deepen under Trump’s tariff barrage. That will become evident on Friday with the release of July GDP.

USDCAD is underpinned by expectations of further BoC easing, even as U.S. rates are projected to fall on October 29. Adding to the momentum, broad U.S. dollar strength against the G-10 currencies is another layer of support.

WTI is consolidating these weeks gains in a 64.27-64.93 range after gaining over 5% this week. The EIA reported US crude inventories fell by 0.607 million barrels and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure raised concerns of diminished supply in the near term.

USDCAD Technical Outlook:

The intraday technicals are bullish but the steep uptrend from last Friday combined with significant resistance in the 1.3900-1.3950 zone suggests that a break below 1.3870 would extend gains to 1.3820, then 1.3760.

The medium-term technicals are moderately bullish while prices are above 1.3660 with the break above the 100 day moving average (now 1.3763) targeting the 200 day moving average at 1.4001.

For today, USDCAD support is 1.3870 and 1.3820. Resistance is 1.3910 and 1.3940. Today’s Range: 1.3840-1.3940

Tik Tok, Tik Tok

Trump is close to finalizing his expropriation of Tik Tok, a hugely successful Chinese company. Under the auspices of National Security, he determined that Tik Tok should be banned from use by Americans. Then he discovered the platform helped him win the election. Now a consortium of American investors and others will own 80% of the company.

Data, Data

US Initial Jobless Claims rose 218,000, a marked improvement over last week’s 231,00 increase and the forecast of 235,000. Durable Goods Orders rose 2.9% (forecast -0.7% m/m) and Q2 GDP rose 2.1% compared to expectations for a 2.0% increase. That data suggests the Fed need not be hasting in cutting rates.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indexes closed higher. Japan’s Topix climbed 0.47% while Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.10%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 0.12%.

As of 5:30 am PDT, the German Dax has lost 0.98%, the French CAC-40 index is down 0.69%, and the UK FTSE 100 index has dropped by 0.32%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.36%. The US dollar index (DXY) is 97.90, Gold (XAUUSD) is 3739.05 and the US 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.188%.

EURUSD

EURUSD is near the top of its 1.1731-1.1754 range as it consolidates its losses from Tuesday and Wednesday. French politics are a negative with National Party leader Marine Le Pen pushing for fresh elections.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded quietly in a 1.3434-1.3467 range. Sterling continues to be weighed down by gloomy UK growth data, sticky inflation, and persistent market concern about public finances. BoE policymakers are disagreeing over interest rate direction. Governor Bailey wants more rate cuts while Megan Greene said they should skip a rate cut in November.

USDJPY

USDJPY drifted in a narrow 148.56-148.88 range. Prices were supported by somewhat hawkish July BoJ minutes that had two members calling for rate hikes in the future, with two members dissenting at the September meeting. Gains were capped by weak domestic data, and U.S. tariff uncertainty.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD bounced around in a 0.6581-0.6604 range underpinned by yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation data. The news dampened hopes that the RBA would cut rates at its September 30 meeting.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways in a 18.4019-18.4303 range. Banxico is expected to announce a 25 bp rate cut to 7.50% from 7.75%, a three-year low. The cut is due to weak economic growth which is exacerbated by uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs.

USDCNY

PBoC fix: 7.1118 vs exp. 7.1293 (Prev. 7.1077)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.60% to 4593.49.

The PBoC boosted support for Hong Kong’s yuan bond market by expanding eligible assets, easing investor access, and raising the Swap Connect daily limit to 45 billion yuan from 20 billion. The goal is to deepen cross-border links, improve offshore yuan liquidity, and lift the currency’s international appeal.
China’s exports of rare-earth magnets to the US fell in August but shipments to the EU increased.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics