January 27, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3706, overnight range 1.3671-1.3740, close 1.3711

USDCAD underperformed its G-7 peers, albeit very modestly, following a flurry of tariff threats from Trump and his sycophants on the weekend. One of those, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, accused Carney of doing an “about face” on steel tariffs and reiterated Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs.

US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra threatened China-Taiwan-style repercussions if Canada had the audacity to buy its next-generation fighter aircraft from any company but Lockheed Martin.

However, rising gold prices, firmer oil prices, and a global distaste for greenbacks has limited gains and USDCAD has given back all its overnight gains, and then some, in NY trading.

The Bank of Canada and Fed monetary policy meetings tomorrow. Both central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged.

WTI oil inched higher, rising from 60.16 to 61.30, and is sitting at 61.25 in NY. Crude prices are supported by news that the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group is in the Indian Ocean and able to support military action against Iran. In addition, prices are getting a boost from Mexico’s cancellation of a Cuba-destined oil shipment and cold weather across a large part of the US.

US Consumer Confidence and the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index are on tap.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3750 with the bounce from 1.3672 just a correction if gains are capped at 1.3750. A topside break would target resistance at 1.3810 while a failure puts 1.3650 in play.

The medium-term technicals are unchanged from yesterday. USDCAD has broken its prior uptrend and remains vulnerable. A corrective bounce could extend toward 1.3800, while a failure to hold above 1.3650 would open the door to a deeper move toward 1.3600.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3750 and 1.3790.

Today’s Range: 1.3640-1.3740

Gold Rally Shows Souring on America

Gold is flirting close to yesterday’s peak as investors sour on the US. XAUUSD climbed to 5101.10 from 5008.35, sparked by Trump’s latest tariff tirade. He whined that South Korea is not living up to its DEAL and tweeted, “Because the Korean Legislature hasn’t enacted our Historic Trade Agreement, which is their prerogative, I am hereby increasing South Korean TARIFFS on Autos, Lumber, Pharma, and all other Reciprocal TARIFFS, from 15% to 25%.”

Global investors are well aware that a deal with Trump is not a deal in the historical sense of the word and cannot trust him or his government to keep its word. When trust is gone, there is no relationship.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets ignored Trump’s latest tariff outburst and closed higher. Japan’s Topix rose 0.31%, the Hang Seng gained 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.92%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are in positive territory, led by the UK FTSE 100, which is up 0.53%. The French CAC 40 has gained 0.46%, and the German DAX is flat.  S&P 500 futures are 0.23% higher. The US Dollar Index is 96.64, down from 97.29 overnight, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.233%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 5077.39

EURUSD

EURUSD traded in a 1.1851-1.1900 range overnight then popped to 1.1939 in NY.  Prices are underpinned by news that the EU and India signed a massive trade agreement. India promised to reduce tariffs on 97% of EU imports, saving about €4.0 billion in duties for EU companies. In return, the EU will cut tariffs on 99.5% of goods from India over seven years. Agricultural-related items were omitted from the deal. Good things come to those that wait, and it took Trump and 20 years to get this deal done. The EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1580 and looking for a break above 1.1920 to target 1.2020.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded with a bullish bias in a 1.3664-1.3707 range overnight and then rose to 1.3748 in NY, UK Prime Minister Keir is enroute to China for the first visit by a UK PM in eight years. He is hoping to reset the London/Beijing relationship, which became a top priority after Trump’s latest antics with Greenland.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded in a 153.18-154.88 range and is consolidating its recent losses near the low. Japanese politics, soaring JGB yields, and the threat of Fed/BoJ FX intervention are weighing on prices.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is at the top of its 0.6902-0.6953 range. Broad-based US dollar weakness, soaring gold prices, and better-than-expected NAB Consumer Confidence (actual +9 vs November’s +7) are supporting prices. AUDUSD is also underpinned by the ongoing debate as to whether the RBA will hike rates next week.

USDMXN

USDMXN reverse overnight gains and dropped and is at the bottom of its 17.2896-17.3665 range. The drop following yesterday’s jobless rate numbers (actual 2.4% vs November 2.7%) was quickly reversed. Mexico increased its trade surplus to $2.4 billion in December from $ 0.66 billion previously. Mexico is doing all it can to avoid the wrath of Trump, and that includes cancelling a planned oil shipment to Cuba.

China

PBoC Fix: 6.9858 vs exp. 6.9548 (Prev. 6.9843)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4705.69

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) -one week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview