January 28, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3559, overnight range 1.3551-1.3615, close 1.3578

USDCAD dropped like Trump’s polling numbers and the plunge was all due to Trump. He claimed to like the value of the dollar when question by a reporter about the greenback’s recent weakness so traders immediately went in search of level where he would not like it. USDCAD dropped from 1.3740 to a low of 1.3561 and then consolidated the losses ahead of the BoC and FOMC meetings today. The surge in gold and other commodity were other factors driving USDCAD lower.

The BoC is universally expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged while releasing the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

WTI oil traded higher in a 62.08-63.00 range, supported by the soft greenback and after API reported a 247,000-barrel decline in US crude inventories. However, prices have retreated to 62.43 in NY

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3750 and looking for a break below 1.3550 to test 1.3510. However, RSI is deeply oversold, and that suggests scope for a corrective bounce, to 1.3650.

The medium-term technicals are bearish after USDCAD decisively broke its broader uptrend and momentum indicators continue to point lower. While a corrective rebound toward the mid-Bollinger band near 1.3770 is possible, failure to hold above 1.3600 would expose the lower Bollinger band near 1.3420 over the coming sessions.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3550 and 1.3510. Resistance is at 1.3620 and 1.3680

Today’s Range: 1.3510-1.3610

Trump Devalues Dollar

Trump commented on recent dollar weakness when asked whether it had declined too much, saying, “No, I think it’s great, the value of the dollar … the dollar’s doing great.” FX traders wanted to know instantly how far the dollar had to fall before Trump said it wasn’t so great. His comment unleashed a torrent of US dollar selling and safe-haven demand for gold and Swiss francs, which have risen by 12% and 3.9% in the past week.

Fed At Bat

The market consensus is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75% because of elevated inflation, with a dash of defiance toward Trump’s attempt to usurp Fed independence thrown in. The government shutdown for 40 days that began October 1 served to corrupt, delay, and distort economic data, and that lack of quality numbers ensures officials will wait for more data.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed mixed. Japanese politics and a soaring yen weighed on Japan’s Topix, which fell 0.79%. The Hang Seng gained 2.58%, and Australia’s ASX 200 was flat on RBA rate hike fears ahead of next week’s meeting.

As of 7:00 am, European markets are in the red. The French CAC-40 has lost 1.03%, the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.48%, while the German DAX is flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.36% ahead of earnings results from MSFT, TSLA, and META. The US Dollar Index is at 96.25, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.244%, and gold (XAUUSD) is at 5342.41 after reaching 5311.68 overnight.

EURUSD

EURUSD peaked at 1.2082 yesterday, then consolidated in a 1.1971–1.2046 range overnight. The push through 1.2000 will not make ECB policymakers happy, as currency strength could spark a further decline in inflation, which is already below the ECB’s 2.0% target. EURUSD is also being underpinned by the EU-India trade deal announced yesterday. Sustained EURUSD strength could trigger a rate cut. A sustained break of 1.2000 puts 1.2350 in play.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3775–1.3850 range after topping out at 1.3858 yesterday, with price action tracking US dollar sentiment. GBPUSD strength got an added lift from traders unwinding bearish sterling bets.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded in a 152.18–153.07 range after dropping from 154.88. The currency pair was already under pressure after the Fed and BoJ “checked rates,” which is usually a prelude to intervention. The pressure intensified after Trump’s comments. Traders are waiting for the FOMC decision today.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is trading with a bid in a 0.6980–0.7023 range due to broad US dollar weakness after Trump’s remarks and rising concerns that the RBA will raise rates to 3.85% at its February 3 meeting. Australia’s “big four” banks predict that the rate hike is likely due to higher inflation.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded in a 17.1176–17.2079 range but bounced from the low to 17.1795 in early New York. Trump’s comments about the value of the dollar weighed on the peso, but rising USMCA threats and Banxico’s dovish bias will act as a drag on additional losses.

China

PBoC Fix: 6.9755 vs exp. 6.9231 (Prev. 6.9858)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4717.99

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) -one week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview