February 11, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3510, overnight range 1.3504-1.3607, close 1.3554

USDCAD opened at 1.3510 and ticked up to 1.3550 ahead of NFP.  The better-than-expected result extended the morning rally to 1.3607 as bearish positions got covered.

Today’s jobs number contrasts with yesterdays US December retail sales which were unchanged.  The retails sales numbers point to a struggling economy while the employment numbers disagree.

WTI oil prices traded higher in a 64.19-65.54 range and are at the session peak in NY. Prices are underpinned by the ongoing US/Iran nuclear talks. Trump is increasing pressure on Iran by threatening to send another carrier strike group into the region. That news trumped (😊) the API reporting a large 13.4-million-barrel increase in US crude inventories last week.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.3610 and looking for a break below 1.3480 to extend losses to 1.3440. A break above 1.3610 would ease immediate downside pressure suggest a retest of 1.3665.

The medium-term technicals are bearish supported by the move below the 100-day (1.3665) and 200-day (1.3733) moving averages

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3510 and 1.3480. Resistance is at 1.3610 and 1.3650

Today’s Range: 1.3510-1.3610.

Upside Surprise in NFP

The market reacted to White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warning, “I think that you should expect slightly smaller job numbers.” Ooops, Hassett was totally wrong.  NFP rose 130,000 in January (forecast70,000)  while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Trump reiterated claims that the US should have the lowest interest rates in the world and said that if rates went down by 2 bps, the US would not have a deficit. Two FOMC policymakers, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, do not sound eager to cut rates. Ms. Hammack said, “we could be on hold for quite some time.” Ms. Logan said she is not fully confident that inflation is heading to 2.0%.

Taking Stock

Asian equities rallied, led by a 1.90% gain in Japan’s Topix. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 1.66%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.31%.

As of 5:45 am PT, European bourses are mixed. The UK FTSE 100 is up 0.97%, while the French CAC 40 is flat and the German DAX is up 0.16%.%. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.45%, post NFP, the US Dollar Index rose from 96.66 to 97.27, post NFP, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.198% after opening at 4.133%.  Gold (XAUUSD) is 5063.74.

EURUSD

EURUSD drifted higher in a 1.1886-1.1928 band due to greenback weakness ahead of the US NFP report then dropped to 1.1833 when the numbers came out. The short-term technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.1820 and are looking for a break above 1.1950 to test 1.2000.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3632-1.3701 range and fell to 1.3609 post-NFP before bouncing to 1.3653.  GBPUSD gains may be capped around 1.3750 on expectations that the BoE will cut rates.

USDJPY

USDJPY extended this week’s losses and fell from 154.52 to 152.80 before rebounding to 153.39 in NY. The NFP data had little impact. Increased expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates have usurped concerns about PM Takaichi’s fiscal spending plans, and that is driving USDJPY lower.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD rallied from 0.7067 to 0.7129 and is at 0.7107, post jobs number. Prices are underpinned by hawkish comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. He warned that inflation is “still too high,” which reflects increased demand bumping up against supply constraints. “If that’s true, the risk is higher inflation, and we can’t let that happen.” Traders heard, “more rate hikes are coming,” and bought AUDUSD.

USDMXN

USDMXN retreated in a 17.1307-17.1998 range, with price action tracking US dollar sentiment. Prices explode higher and touched 17.2421 in the wake of the US data.

China

PBoC Fix: 6.9438 vs exp. 6.9109 (Prev. 6.9458)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.22% to 4713.82       

CPI rose 0.2% y/y in January (forecast 0.4%, Dec. 0.8%) while PPI fell 1.4% y/y (forecast-1.5%, Dec. -1.9%)

USDCNY falls to lowest level since mid-2023.

A former editor-in-chief of China Global Times Hu Xijin reportedly warned that posted that if the US sells USD 20bln worth of weapons to Taiwan, it would be hard to believe that China will simply conduct another island-encircling military exercise.

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview