Market Commentary & News

Agility Forex Daily

February 13, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3619, overnight range 1.3598-1.3638, close 1.3612

USDCAD rallied on a bout of risk aversion after another AI disruption disturbance spooked equity traders. The greenback was also supported by fears of a higher US inflation reading although it is not likely to mean much for FOMC policymakers. They are more concerned about employment.

WTI oil prices are near the bottom its 62.15-63.27 range after Trump reiterated that he hopes to come to terms with Iran. Nevertheless, that didn’t stop him from ordered the the USS Gerald Ford Strike group from the Caribbean to the Middle East.

The Canadian economic calendar is empty.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are neutral to slightly bullish while prices are above 1.3595 and looking for a test of resistance is the 1.3640-1.3660 zone. A move above 1.3665 would target the 1.3720–1.3730 area. A break below 1.3590 would shift the focus back toward 1.3525.

The medium-term technicals are bearish, supported by price remaining below the 100-day moving average at 1.3877 and the 200-day at 1.3819.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.35950 and 1.3550. Resistance is at 1.3660 and 1.3690.
Today’s Range: 1.3590-1.3670

Today’s Range: 1.3510–1.3610.

US Inflation then Long Weekend

January US CPI rose 2.4% y/y, (forecast 2.5%) compared to 2.7% in December, and the monthly figure eased to 0.2% (forecast and previously 0.3% m/m), unchanged from December. CPI dipped to 2.5% from 2.6%, as expected.

Canada and US markets are closed Monday, as are another 30 or so countries around the world. China begins its Lunar New Year holiday, as do other Asian countries. Caribbean countries are closed for Carnival Monday, and Germany is closed for the Monday before Lent.

Trump is considering rolling back tariffs on some metals and aluminium to buy votes ahead of the US mid-term elections. The New York Fed published a report stating that US companies and consumers are bearing 90% of the costs of Trump’s tariffs.

Secretary of State Rubio is attending the Munich Security Conference in hopes of easing tensions stemming from Trump’s Greenland threats and from VP Vance’s pit-bull performance last year.

The Mouse that Roared

AI advances have put investors on edge, and that was clearly evident on Thursday. Algorithm Holdings (RIME: NASDAQ), with a market cap of $6.21 million, announced that its SemiCab, an AI-driven platform for freight planning, could enable 300–400% scaling without increasing headcount. That news wiped out about $2.9 billion from CH Robinson Worldwide, a freight transportation, transportation management, brokerage, and warehousing firm. It also crushed the Russell 3000 trucking index and weighed on logistics stocks around the world.

Taking Stock

Asian equities posted losses across the board. Japan’s Topix fell 1.63%, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 1.39%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.72%.

As of 8:30 am, the German DAX is flat, the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.12% and French CAC 40 is down 0.53%. S&P 500 futures have lost 0.19%, the US Dollar Index is at 97.04, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.074%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,985.94.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded quietly in a 1.1847–1.1873 range, with prices seeing some support from better-than-expected economic data. Eurozone Q4 GDP rose 1.4% (forecast 1.3%), unchanged from Q3. Eurozone employment increased 0.2%, also unchanged from Q3. EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1760.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD drifted in a 1.3590–1.3630 band. There is a dearth of domestic drivers, leaving sterling traders to await today’s US inflation numbers. GBPUSD continues to be underpinned by dovish expectations for the Fed and concerns about Fed independence if Kevin Warsh becomes Chair. However, gains are limited due to expectations for the Bank of England to cut rates.

USDJPY

USDJPY drifted higher in a 152.66–153.67 range and is on track to finish the week with a 2.2% loss. BoJ board member and noted hawk Naoki Tamura said that the 2.0% inflation target is close, which suggests a rate hike may be near.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is at the bottom of its 0.7044–0.7098 range due to a minor bout of US dollar safe-haven demand as global equity indices tumbled. Lower commodity prices also weighed on the currency, but the downside is limited by the hawkish interest rate outlook from the RBA.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways in a 17.1994–17.2546 range following broad US dollar demand from falling equity prices. The downtrend from November remains intact while prices are below 17.6000.

China

PBoC Fix: 6.9398 vs exp. 6.9045 (Prev. 6.9457).

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.25% to 4660.41

China House Price Index fell 3.1% y/y in January vs -2.7% in December.