February 17, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3643, overnight range 1.3632.-1.3670, close Fri. 1.3618, Mon. 1.3637

USDCAD is quietly bid, rising from a low of 1.3594 on Friday to a 1.3670, post CPI. The US dollar is seeing marginally improved demand as risk sentiment ticks lower on increased fears of Trump attacking Iran.

Canadian inflation cooled in January, rising just 2.3% compared to the forecast and December result of 2.4%. The BoC Core CPI index ticked down to 2.6% from 2.8% y/y in January. Nevertheless, the results are unlikely to have much impact on trading. That’s because there is another report due before the March 18 BoC monetary policy meeting and inflation is comfortably within its 1-3% mandated target. BoC officials are on record for saying monetary policy has done all it can to support the economy and that additional stimulus in the Feds hands.

WTI oil prices traded higher in a 62.84-63.96 range on fears that US military action in Iran will disrupt Middle East oil supplies. Iran warned that parts of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for military drills,

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are neutral to slightly bullish while prices are above 1.3580 and looking for a test of the 1.3670 downtrend line from January 19.  A move above 1.3670 would target the 1.3690–1.3725 area. A break below 1.3580 would shift the focus back toward 1.3550 and then 1.3525.

The medium-term technicals are bearish, supported by price remaining below the downtrend line from November at 1.3800 and looking for a break below 1.3520 to extend losses to the 1.3460-80 zone.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3610 and 1.3580. Resistance is at 1.3670 and 1.3705.

Today’s Range: 1.3590–1.3690

Horse with No Name

Traders are returning to their trading screens on a horse with no name except those in many South American, a smattering of Europe and Asian countries. They are too busy celebrating Carnival Day and Lunar New Year. FX and global equity markets traded quietly while oil prices ticked higher. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.12% to 4.05% Friday and consolidated the losses overnight.

The High Priest of Peace

Trump is working feverishly towards a Nobel Peace Prize and dammit, he will be owed one for his actions in Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Nothing warrants a Nobel like piracy to steal Venezuelan crude on the high seas or divvying up Venezuelan oil projects to US corporations at the point of a gun. Trump has two carrier strike groups aimed at Tehran, using the guise of a nuclear deal to mask its intentions for regime change. Trump is wielding his peace charms to end the Russia/Ukraine war. He is demanding that Ukraine give Russia all the Ukrainian territory it wants, in return for… nothing. And the icing on the cake is that the US is blockading oil shipments to Cuba, as it creates a made-in-America humanitarian crisis for the island.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets were thin. Japan’s Topix fell 0.68%, while Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.24%. Chinese markets were closed.

As of 7:00 am, the UK FTSE 100 has risen by 0.43%, the German Dax has gained 0.20% and the French CAC-40 is up 0.10%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.23%, the US Dollar Index is at 97.25, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.029%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,937.33.

EURUSD

EURUSD remained range bound in a 1.1829-1.1854 band after closing at 1.1851 on Monday. Recent European economic data failed to motivate traders. On Monday, EU industrial production was weaker than in November (-1.4% m/m vs November 0.3%), and German inflation numbers released this morning showed Harmonized CPI was unchanged at 2.1% y/y in January. The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment ticked down to 58.3 from 59.6.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded negatively in a 1.3552-1.3636 range following a weaker-than-expected employment report. The UK only added 52,000 jobs in the three months ending in December (previously 82,000) while the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1%. The data boosted the odds that the Bank of England would cut rates in March.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded sideways in a 152.70-153.76 range with prices undermined by continuing expectations for government stimulus, which is expected to delay a Bank of Japan rate hike in the near term. Rising JGB yields and sliding US Treasury yields are also weighing on prices.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is near the top of its 0.7047-0.7077 range after closing at 0.7071 yesterday. The RBA minutes revealed that policymakers were clueless on the outlook for the economy but reiterated that the latest rate hike was the right step.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded in a 17.1629-17.2220 range. Prices remained on the defensive after Friday’s weaker-than-expected US inflation numbers refreshed Fed rate-cut cries.

China

USDCNY Fix: Closed for Lunar New Year

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300:  Closed for Lunar New Year

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview