February 19, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3682, overnight range 1.3668.-1.3707, close 1.3696
USDCAD continued its week-long drift higher after the slightly hawkish FOMC minutes tempered expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is inching closer to a majority government and may not even need to call the rumoured early election. Another Conservative MP discovered he was really a Liberal and crossed the floor, which probably caught his constituents by surprise.
Canada’s Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is pursuing bilateral trade agreements with Mexico in the event Trump dumps CUSMA.
WTI oil rose from 64.84 to 66.29 on increasing fears that Trump will attack Iran and extended the rally to 66.56 in NY
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3640 and looking for a break above 1.3710 to extend gains to 1.3750. a topside break targets 1.3850, while a move below 1.3640 suggests further losses to 1.3610.
The medium-term downtrend from November remains intact while prices are bearish below 1.3800 which suggest the recent rally is merely corrective. A break above 1.3800 puts 1.4000 in play.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3710 and 1.3750
Today’s Range: 1.3640-1.3740
US Data a Mixed Bag
Weekly jobless claims dropped by 23,000 to 209,000 last week which further supports the Fed view for leaving rates unchanged.
The Philly Fed Survey said “current general activity and new orders indexes remained somewhat elevated; however, the shipments index declined to a near-zero reading. The employment index suggests mostly steady employment overall but dipped into negative territory. Both price indexes continued to suggest overall price increases. Expectations for growth over the next six months were more widespread.”
FX markets ignored the data.
FOMC Minutes Have a Hawkish Tilt
The US dollar caught a bit of a safe haven bid yesterday after the FOMC minutes but gave back some of the gains overnight.
The FOMC minutes suggested a hawkish bias. That conclusion came from this line: “Most participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective might be slower and more uneven than generally expected and judged that the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee’s objective was meaningful.”
The dovish bias was reinforced by this: “The vast majority of participants judged that labor market conditions had been showing some signs of stabilization and that downside risks to the labor market had diminished.”
At least one Fed official isn’t buying the latest US employment results. Fed Governor Michele Bowman said that the latest jobs report was a “bit strange,” adding that “most other indicators don’t show as strong a labor market.”
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets rallied in holiday-thinned trading. Japan’s Topix rose 1.18%, while Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.88%. Chinese markets were closed.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are under water. The German DAX is down 0.92%, the French CAC-40 has lost 0.77%, and the UK FTSE 100 has dropped 0.57%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.31%, the US Dollar Index is at 97.95, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.10%, and gold (XAUUSD) has rallied from 4853.86 and sits at 4996.60.
EURUSD
EURUSD consolidated yesterday’s losses in a 1.1782–1.1808 range. ING analysts point to European equity index outperformance versus the US as a reason EURUSD downside is limited. Traders were not very motivated today due to a lack of euro-area economic data and ahead of US data, including weekly jobless claims.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is languishing at the bottom of its 1.3470–1.3516 range, with prices weighed down by the hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes. The prospect of steady US rates for longer compared to a dovish bias from the Bank of England is undermining the currency pair. Traders were also distracted by news that former Prince Andrew was arrested for “misconduct while in public office” and is being held in custody after a pre-dawn raid at Sandringham.
USDJPY
USDJPY rose, then fell, in a 154.62–155.34 range, peaking in Asia before sliding into the NY open. Prices were supported by the rise in US Treasury yields and general US dollar strength following the FOMC minutes.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded choppily in a tight 0.7720–0.7743 range. Australia’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, supporting the argument that the economy is still operating at full capacity and keeping the door open for rate hikes down the road.
USDMXN
USDMXN reversed this week’s losses yesterday and then consolidated the gains in a 17.1929–17.2536 range. The rally was driven by the hawkish-sounding FOMC minutes.
China
USDCNY Fix: Closed for Lunar New Year
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Closed for Lunar New Year
FX open high low
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
