September 9, 2025

USDCAD open 1.3802, overnight range 1.3794-1.3817, close, 1.3803

USDCAD is pushing back against broad-based US dollar selling pressure and the Loonie continues to underperform compared to the Australian and New Zealand dollars. That may be because China (Australia’s biggest trading partner) and Australia are mending fences while China and America continue to feud with Canada.

USDCAD pressure is also being curtailed because the Bank of Canada is likely going to cut rates on September 17 as will the Fed.

WTI oil prices are choppy in a 62.37-63.16 range. News that Saudi Arabia cut prices for its Asian customers is weighing on prices as to some, it is evidence of expectations of softer demand. In addition, oil prices gains are limited to expectations for Opec to keep increasing production.

The US and Canadian data calendars are empty, except for the 10:00 am release of the US payrolls revision numbers.

USDCAD Technical Outlook:

The intraday technicals are neutral to slightly bullish while trading above 1.3765 and looking for a break above 1.3875 to extend gains to the 200-day moving average at 1.4021.

The medium-term picture shows the downtrend from March is intact but the failure to break below 1.3500 suggest prices are content to consolidate in a 1.3600-1.400 range. RSI and ADX are neutral

For today, USDCAD support is 1.3780 and 1.3750.  Resistance is 1.3840 and 1.3890. Today’s Range: 1.3780-1.3840

It’s Still About Jobs

The US employment picture will be front and center again today when the nonfarm payrolls benchmark revisions are released at 10:00 am. Analysts are predicting that the US lost anywhere between 400,000 and 1,000,000 jobs in the 12-month period ending in March 2025. That won’t be on Trump—he hadn’t had much time to do any damage.

Recalibrating Politicians

French Prime Minister François Bayou lost his job after losing a no-confidence vote yesterday and President Macron is seeking his 5th PM in less than two years. If that wasn’t enough, France faces a slew of debt-rating reviews beginning with Fitch on September 12.

On the other side of the world, Japan is also looking for a new Prime Minister to replace Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned last week. His resignation may force the BoJ to delay raising rates.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indexes closed with losses except for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which rode rising HK tech and property stocks to a 1.9% gain. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.52%, while Japan’s Topix lost 0.51%.

As of 5:30 am EDT, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.35% and the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.29%, while the German DAX is down 0.41%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is lower at 97.49. Gold is $3,650.03, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.063%.

EURUSD

EURUSD held on to yesterday’s gains in a 1.1745-1.1780 range. Initial selling pressure after the French government fell gave way to EURUSD demand due to falling US interest rates. Nevertheless, French politics will act as a drag on further gains, but the intraday technicals are bullish above 1.1740.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3543-1.3590 range supported by divergent Fed and Bank of England interest rate outlooks. The short-term technicals are bullish above 1.3530 and are looking to test double-top resistance at 1.3630.

USDJPY

USDJPY plunged, falling from 147.56 to 146.31, which is where it is trading in early NY. Free-falling Treasury yields combined with increased odds for Japanese politics to delay BoJ rate hikes are driving prices lower. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from 4.30% on September 3 to 4.063% today.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD added to its recent gains and it sits atop its 0.6583-0.6620 range in NY. Broad-based US dollar weakness and modestly improving business conditions and confidence index results supported prices.

USDMXN

USDMXN is trading negatively in an 18.5857-18.6601 range thanks to a weaker greenback and sharply lower Treasury yields. Mexican inflation data is on tap, but it will take a back seat to the release of Mexico’s 2026 budget, due today. The short-term technicals are bearish below 18.6850 and looking for a test of 18.5050

USDCNY

PBoC fix: 7.1008 vs exp. 7.1225 (Prev. 7.1029)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.70% to 4436.26

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics