April 2, 2025
- Markets idling on Trump “Liberation Day”
- ADP employment data shows gain of 155,000 (forecast 105,000)
- US dollar opens on the defensive-NZD outperforms
FX at a Glance
USDCAD: open 1.4312, overnight range 1.4284-1.4327, close 1.4304
USDCAD sank on the back of wide-spread US dollar selling pressure yesterday when data suggested the Fed could cut rates as the American economy was weak. It was also on hopes that Canada may dodge the worst of Trump’s tariff barrage.
That is not likely, if Trump’s TruthSocial rant last night is any indication. Trump was railing at Republicans who protested imposing tariffs on Canada and wrote: “Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Rand Paul, also of Kentucky, will hopefully get on the Republican bandwagon, for a change, and fight the Democrats wild and flagrant push to not penalize Canada for the sale, into our Country.” Those words suggest Canada will get the tariff “Full Monty”.
US ADP was more robust than forecast, rising 155,000 compared to the estimate of 105,000 and last months upwardly revised 84,000 result. ADP Chief economist Nela Richardson said “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors.”
The US dollar caught a minor bid after the news.
USDCAD Technicals
The intraday USDCAD technicals set-up is very similar to yesterdays. They are are bullish above 1.4290-1.4300 and looking to extend gains above 1.4360 to target 1.4450. A break below 1.4300 targets 1.4230.
The USDCAD uptrend line from November remains intact while prices are above the 1.4220-40 area and looking for a test of resistance at 1.4550.
For today, USDCAD support is 1.4270 and 1.4240. Resistance is at 1.4350 and 1.4400.
Today’s Range: 1.4290-1.4390
Chart: USDCAD 1 day
Making Promises from the Rose Garden
President Trump will proclaim that America is Free today. He will be exactly where he wants to be at 4:00 pm EDT—basking in the glare of Klieg lights in the White House Rose Garden, squarely at the center of global attention. The fate of the world economy hangs in the balance, with millions of jobs on the line. Today, he opens his kimono—figuratively, thankfully—and exposes the full scope of his tariff agenda.
He doesn’t care. He’s only interested in Making America Great Again. Trouble is,
he will make America mediocre first if he follows through on all his tariff threats to date.
Global Equity Indexes are in the Red
Asian equity indexes closed flat to negative. Japan’s Topix fell 0.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat, and Australia’s ASX 200 ticked up by 0.12%. European bourses lost ground, led by a 1.77% drop in the German Dax and a 0.98% drop in the UK FTSE 100. S&P 500 futures are down 0.97%, while gold (XAUSUD) is steady at 3129.75. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.124%.
EURUSD
NY Open: 1.0806, Overnight Range: 1.0785-1.0811
EURUSD traded cautiously ahead of Trump’s announcement today and remains vulnerable to the downside if Trump’s 20% tariff threat becomes a reality. EU President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU has a strong plan to retaliate but prefers to negotiate.
GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.2946, Overnight Range: 1.2902–1.2933
GBPUSD remained inside yesterday’s range with traders sidelined until the tariff announcements. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has adopted Neville Chamberlain’s “head-in-the-sand” approach—appease and retreat. He thinks an invite to dine with King Charles will be enough to dissuade Trump from imposing tariffs on the UK. He’s wrong. The UK economic calendar was empty.
USDJPY
NY Open: 149.44, Overnight Range: 149.31-150.00
USDJPY retreated from its peak in hopes that Trump will exempt autos from tariffs. If not, USDJPY has a date with the 152.00 level in the near term.
AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6313, Overnight Range: 0.6275-0.6314
AUDUSD rallied on hopes that Trump’s tariffs would not be as harsh as originally expected, but the rally stalled in NY. AUDUSD is vulnerable to the downside on harsher-than-expected tariff actions against China, its biggest trading partner. Australian data was mixed. PMI was -29.7 in February compared to -8.2 in January, and building permits fell 0.3% m/m compared to a 6.9% gain previously.
NZDUSD
NY Open: 0.5746, Overnight Range: 0.5702-0.5747
NZDUSD is the best-performing G-10 major currency overnight. Kiwi rallied on hopes of more targeted tariffs rather than the sweeping, across-the-board 20% tariffs that Trump has talked about. Nevertheless, NZDUSD is vulnerable to the impact of tariffs on China’s economy.
USDMXN
NY Open: 20.3263, Overnight Range: 20.3120–20.3920
USDMXN dropped on the back of weaker-than-expected US data yesterday. Traders are hoping that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s talks with Trump will lead to preferential tariff treatment.
FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)
Not available today
China Snapshot`
PBoC fix: 7.1793 vs exp. 7.2663 (Prev. 7.1775)
Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 0.08% to 3884.39
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.
