USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2752-1.2812
USDCAD has bounced slightly off the overnight low and is hovering around 1.2800 due to a modest rebound in the US dollar and a bit of position adjustment ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, statement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference beginning at 10:00 am EDT. At issue is whether or not BoC Governo, Poloz attempts to emphasis the global downside risks over the improvements in the domestic economy.
AUDUSD caught a bit of a bid in Asia trading, thanks to better than expected Chinese data. China exports rose 18.7% vs forecasted 14.9%. That news gave global equity indices a lift as well. However, AUDUSD couldn’t sustain the upside momentum and is currently back lower than where it started. USDJPY had a good day supported, in part, by more veiled threats of intervention and rising Japanese equity markets.
EURUSD showed some signs of life in Europe and finally broke below the April low of 1.1320. Hawkish rhetoric from a series of Fed speakers yesterday and overnight combined with hawkish statements from the ECB’s Knot and rising oil prices, all contributed to the US dollar strength.
WTI oil is off yesterday’s high of $42.25/b, undermined by the 6.2 million/barrel build the weekly Crude Inventories Report as announced by API and caution going into the weekend Opec meeting.
US Retail Sales data, due today, are expected to rebound from last months poor showing and provide additional support to the US dollar
USDCAD technical outlook
1.2635 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the June 15/January 16 range. A break of 1.2820 would snap the intraday downtrend and spark a correction back toward the 1.2950 zone. However, the short term downtrend is still in place while prices remain below 1.3150. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2770, 1.2735 and 1.2690. Resistance is at 1.2820, 1.2870 and 1.2950
Today’s Range 1.2770-1.2870
Chart: USDCAD 30 minute