USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2218-90        

USDCAD ticked steadily higher in early New York trading and then popped toward resistance in the 1.2290-1.2305 area following the release of Canadian CPI and Retail Sales reports. CPI was slightly higher than expected but a much weaker than expected April Retail Sales report (Actual -0.1% vs forecast of 0.7%) did all the damage.

It was a very quiet overnight session.  Greece uncertainty and FOMC alchemy transfixed FX markets this week and will repeat the process next week. Greece wants debt relief and the EU and the IMF want debt repaid.  The clock is ticking down to default. EURUSD has been extremely resilient to the latest Greek exit worries and it may be simply because traders are more fatigued from US rate hike chatter and the meaning of the dots then they are with Greece stiffing the Eurozone.

The highlight of the Asian session was that the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged which was expected. The BoJ governor avoided talking about the JPY after being badly burned two weeks ago. 

USDCAD technical outlook

The USDCAD technicals are modestly bullish but need to break resistance in the 1.2290-1.2305 area which would set up a test of key resistance in the 1.2350-70 zone. If this level holds, it would suggest that the bounce from yesterday’s 1.2125 low is merely corrective and that the downtrend from March will resume.  For today, USD support is at 1.2240 and 1.2210.  Resistance is at 1.2305, 1.2340 and 1.2360

Today’s Range 1.2240-1.2305

Chart: USDCAD 4 hour with downtrends and resistance